College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(35):48298-48311. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14092-1. Epub 2021 Apr 27.
COVID-19 has caused huge impacts on human health and the economic operation of the world. Analyzing and summarizing the early propagation law can help reduce the losses caused by public health emergencies in the future. Early data on the spread of COVID-19 in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of mainland China except for Hubei, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were selected in this study. Spatio-temporal analysis, inflection point analysis, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics in the early COVID-19 spread. The results suggested that (1) the total confirmed cases have risen in an "S"-shaped curve over time, and the daily new cases have first increased and finally decreased; (2) the spatial distributions of both total and daily new cases show a trend of more in the east and less in the west, with a "multi-center agglomeration distribution" around Hubei Province and some major cities; (3) the spatial agglomeration of total confirmed cases has been increasing over time, while that of the daily new cases shows much more obvious in the mid-stage; and (4) timely release of the first-level public health emergency response can accelerate the emergence of the epidemic inflection point. The above analysis results have a specific reference value for the government's policy-making and measures to face public health emergencies.
COVID-19 对人类健康和世界经济运行造成了巨大影响。分析和总结其早期传播规律，有助于减少未来突发公共卫生事件造成的损失。本研究选取中国大陆除湖北、香港、澳门、台湾以外的 30 个省（自治区、直辖市）的 COVID-19 早期传播数据，采用时空分析、拐点分析和相关性分析等方法，探索 COVID-19 早期传播的时空特征。结果表明：（1）累计确诊病例随时间呈“S”型上升，日新增病例先增后降；（2）累计和日新增病例的空间分布均呈现东部多、西部少的趋势，围绕湖北省和部分大城市呈“多中心集聚分布”；（3）累计确诊病例的空间集聚程度随时间逐渐增加，而日新增病例在中期表现出更为明显的集聚特征；（4）及时发布Ⅰ级突发公共卫生事件应急响应可以加速疫情拐点的出现。上述分析结果对政府应对突发公共卫生事件的决策和措施具有一定的参考价值。
