Wu W J, Yang X C, Yao M H, Wu G H, Xu J Y, Zhao X, Zhang J Y
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistic, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Sep 10;41(9):1471-1476. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191205-00865.
To accurately estimate the health burden and corresponding economic loss attributed to PM(2.5) pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) area in China in 2015. By using satellite-retrieved PM(2.5) concentration data and population data provided by NASA (the spatial resolution was 1 km×1 km), this study estimated excess mortality attributed to long-term PM(2).5 exposure in BTH area in 2015 based on Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Besides, Value of Statistic Life (VSL) method was used to evaluate the corresponding health economic loss. In BTH area, the population-weighted average PM(2.5) concentration during 2012-2014 was 46.25 μg/m(3), and 56.6% of total population lived in the area where annual average PM(2.5) concentration exceeded Grade Ⅱ of National Ambient Air Quality Standard in China (35 μg/m(3)); The PM(2.5)-related premature deaths amounted to 193.8 thousand (95: 140.9 thousand-233.3 thousand), Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Handan were the top five cities with high incidences of PM(2.5)-related premature deaths; The corresponding health economic loss was about 35.934 billion (95: 26.099 billion - 43.255 billion) RMB, accounting for 0.70% (95: 0.51%-0.85%) of the area's GDP in 2015, Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Cangzhou were the top five cities with high health economic loss. PM(2.5) pollution has caused severe disease and economic burden in BTH area. Its spatial distribution suggested that it is particularly necessary to develop the air pollution prevention and control policies for key cities.
准确估算2015年中国京津冀地区细颗粒物（PM2.5）污染造成的健康负担及相应经济损失。本研究利用美国国家航空航天局提供的卫星反演PM2.5浓度数据和人口数据（空间分辨率为1千米×1千米），基于全球暴露死亡率模型（GEMM）估算2015年京津冀地区长期暴露于PM2.5导致的超额死亡率。此外，采用统计生命价值（VSL）法评估相应的健康经济损失。在京津冀地区，2012 - 2014年期间人口加权平均PM2.5浓度为46.25微克/立方米，56.6%的总人口居住在年平均PM2.5浓度超过中国国家环境空气质量标准二级（35微克/立方米）的地区；与PM2.5相关的过早死亡人数达19.38万（95%置信区间：14.09万 - 23.33万），北京、天津、保定、石家庄和邯郸是与PM2.5相关过早死亡发生率最高的前五个城市；相应的健康经济损失约为359.34亿元人民币（95%置信区间：260.99亿 - 432.55亿元人民币），占该地区2015年GDP的0.70%（95%置信区间：0.51% - 0.85%），北京、天津、保定、石家庄和沧州是健康经济损失最高的前五个城市。PM2.5污染已给京津冀地区造成严重疾病和经济负担。其空间分布表明，制定重点城市的空气污染防治政策尤为必要。
