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具有马尔可夫切换的随机冠状病毒(COVID-19)流行模型的动力学

Dynamics of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model with Markovian switching.

作者信息

Boukanjime Brahim, Caraballo Tomás, El Fatini Mohamed, El Khalifi Mohamed

机构信息

Laboratory of PDE's, Algebra and spectral Geometry, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofail University, Kénitra, BP 133, Morocco.

Dpto. Ecuaciones Diferenciales y Análisis Numérico, Facultad de Matemáticas, Universidad de Sevilla, Tarfia, s/n, Sevilla, 41012, Spain.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Dec;141:110361. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110361. Epub 2020 Oct 16.

DOI:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110361
PMID:33100608
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7566849/
Abstract

In this paper, we analyze a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model which is perturbed by both white noise and telegraph noise incorporating general incidence rate. Firstly, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution. Then, we establish the stochastic threshold for the extinction and the persistence of the disease. The data from Indian states, are used to confirm the results established along this paper.

摘要

在本文中,我们分析了一个受白噪声和电报噪声干扰且包含一般发病率的随机冠状病毒(COVID - 19)流行模型。首先,我们研究全局正解的存在性和唯一性。然后,我们建立了疾病灭绝和持续存在的随机阈值。印度各邦的数据被用于证实本文所建立的结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/f7b58e9b123b/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/6fb32b7d89f4/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/3791130c2855/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/f7b58e9b123b/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/6fb32b7d89f4/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/3791130c2855/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/53fb/7566849/f7b58e9b123b/gr3_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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2
Modelling the spread of COVID-19 with new fractal-fractional operators: Can the lockdown save mankind before vaccination?用新的分形分数算子对COVID-19传播进行建模:封锁措施能否在疫苗接种前拯救人类?
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul;136:109860. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109860. Epub 2020 May 29.
3
A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control.
考虑使用口罩和接种疫苗的 COVID-19 模型的估计和敏感性分析。
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 20;13(1):6434. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-33499-z.
4
Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa.建模 COVID Alert SA 应用程序与疫苗接种联合使用对南非 COVID-19 感染的影响。
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 3;18(2):e0264863. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264863. eCollection 2023.
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Dynamical analysis of a stochastic delayed epidemic model with lévy jumps and regime switching.具有 Lévy 跳跃和状态切换的随机延迟流行病模型的动力学分析
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