Bankole Taofik Olatunji, Omoyeni Olajide Bamidele, Oyebode Abiodun Oluwaseun, Akintunde David Olumide
Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Z Gesundh Wiss. 2022;30(5):1179-1188. doi: 10.1007/s10389-020-01394-w. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
This study examines the growth trends in the COVID-19 pandemic and fatalities arising from its complications among tested patients in West Africa. Countries around the world have employed several measures in order to control the spread of the disease. In spite of the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in West Africa, the spread of the pandemic is relatively low compared to reported cases in other regions of the world. The study addresses this phenomenon by asking the question: is the low incidence of COVID-19 in the West African sub-region a mitigating healthcare delivery system or just a matter of time?
The study adopted a cross-sectional time series method. Data for Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Niger Republic, and global data were extracted from the World Health Organization COVID-19 databank. Data were extracted in intervals of 7 days from March 15 through April 19, 2020. Data regarding the incidence growth rate and fatalities arising from COVID-19 complications were generated from the total reported cases and fatalities over specified periods. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were carried out using Stata version 14.
Results showed that the trends in growth patterns of COVID-19 for Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana, Republic of Niger, and West Africa generally followed the same fluctuating curves. The COVID-19 pandemic accounted for 92.3%, 97.8%, 90.3%, 65%, 90.4%, 93.6%, and 97% of complications that led to deaths of patients in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, Niger Republic, Ivory Coast, and West Africa, respectively. Also, the results established that there was a significant positive association between increased incidence of COVID-19 and percentage increase in fatalities arising from its complications in West Africa (ß = 0.032; = 12.70; < 0.001).
The threat presently posed by COVID-19 seems to be minimal in West Africa despite the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in the region. It is unlikely, however, that the region is well prepared for the pandemic in the event that it escalates out of control with time.
本研究考察了西非地区接受检测的患者中新冠疫情的增长趋势及其并发症导致的死亡情况。世界各国已采取多种措施来控制该疾病的传播。尽管西非地区的医疗服务体系状况不佳，但与世界其他地区报告的病例相比，该疫情的传播相对较低。本研究通过提出以下问题来探讨这一现象：西非次区域新冠病毒发病率低是医疗服务体系起到了缓解作用，还是仅仅是时间问题？
本研究采用横断面时间序列方法。从世界卫生组织新冠病毒数据库中提取了加纳、尼日利亚、布基纳法索、科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、尼日尔共和国的数据以及全球数据。数据提取时间为2020年3月15日至4月19日，间隔为7天。关于新冠病毒发病率增长率及其并发症导致的死亡数据是根据特定时间段内报告的病例总数和死亡人数生成的。使用Stata 14版本进行描述性和推断性统计分析。
结果显示，塞内加尔、尼日利亚、加纳、尼日尔共和国以及西非地区新冠病毒的增长模式趋势总体上遵循相同的波动曲线。在布基纳法索、尼日利亚、塞内加尔、加纳、尼日尔共和国、科特迪瓦以及西非地区，分别有92.3%、97.8%、90.3%、65%、90.4%、93.6%和97%的并发症导致患者死亡。此外，结果还表明，西非地区新冠病毒发病率的增加与其并发症导致的死亡百分比增加之间存在显著的正相关关系（β = 0.032；t = 12.70；p < 0.001）。
尽管西非地区的医疗服务体系状况不佳，但目前新冠病毒在该地区构成的威胁似乎最小。然而，如果随着时间推移疫情失控，该地区不太可能对疫情做好充分准备。
