Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Nat Commun. 2020 Nov 6;11(1):5633. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19455-9.
Species' vulnerability to extinction is strongly impacted by their geographical range size. Formulating effective conservation strategies therefore requires a better understanding of how the ranges of the world's species have changed in the past, and how they will change under alternative future scenarios. Here, we use reconstructions of global land use and biomes since 1700, and 16 possible climatic and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100, to map the habitat ranges of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species through time. We estimate that species have lost an average of 18% of their natural habitat range sizes thus far, and may lose up to 23% by 2100. Our data reveal that range losses have been increasing disproportionately in relation to the area of destroyed habitat, driven by a long-term increase of land use in tropical biodiversity hotspots. The outcomes of different future climate and land use trajectories for global habitat ranges vary drastically, providing important quantitative evidence for conservation planners and policy makers of the costs and benefits of alternative pathways for the future of global biodiversity.
物种的灭绝脆弱性受到其地理分布范围的强烈影响。因此，制定有效的保护策略需要更好地了解世界物种的分布范围在过去是如何变化的，以及在不同的未来情景下它们将如何变化。在这里，我们利用 1700 年以来全球土地利用和生物群落的重建以及 16 个可能的气候和社会经济情景，来描绘 16919 种哺乳动物、鸟类和两栖动物的栖息地范围随时间的变化。我们估计，到目前为止，物种已经失去了其自然栖息地范围大小的平均 18%，到 2100 年，它们可能会失去高达 23%的栖息地。我们的数据显示，由于热带生物多样性热点地区土地利用的长期增加，与被破坏的栖息地面积相比，物种的损失不成比例地增加。不同未来气候和土地利用轨迹对全球栖息地范围的影响差异很大，为保护规划者和决策者提供了重要的定量证据，说明了全球生物多样性未来替代路径的成本和收益。
