Kumar Dinesh, Raina Sunil K, Chauhan Raman, Kumar Parveen, Sharma Sushant
Department of Community Medicine, Dr. Rajendra Prasad Government Medical College, Kangra, Himachal Pradesh, India.
J Family Med Prim Care. 2020 Sep 30;9(9):4507-4511. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_807_20. eCollection 2020 Sep.
Lockdown effectively can only result in relative freezing of populations that is expected to slow down the disease spread rather than zeroing it. Flattening of epidemic curve Current analysis was carried out to observe a pattern in the rise of CoVID-19 cases along with concurrent announcements of strategies to control the spread of disease.
Data in from of daily number of cases and issued notifications were studied from the official website of Government of India from 30/01/2020 to 03/05/2020. Qualitative assessment with thematic analysis was carried out for notifications issued by the government. The fit to data on cumulative cases was observed with R and checked for linearity, logarithmic, polynomial, and exponential growth. Daily growth fraction (G) was calculated based on the difference between current and previous number of cases, thereafter daily doubling time (T) was estimated.
Daily reported cases were entered and cumulative growth of cases observed with a polynomial increasing pattern (third-order) with better fit (R: 0.999). Total 108 notifications were issued, and as compared to phase-0 and 1 (87.0%), few (12.9%) notifications were issued in phase-2 of study period. As compared to phase-0 and 1, rising trend of cumulative cases and T was high in phase-2.
Across phases of lockdown along with a rising trend of COVID-19 cases, the country has managed to increase the doubling time of cases with an effort to flatten the epidemic curve.
封锁实际上只能导致人群相对静止，预计这会减缓疾病传播速度，而非使其归零。疫情曲线平缓化 进行当前分析是为了观察新冠病毒疾病病例增加的模式以及同时宣布的控制疾病传播策略。
研究了2020年1月30日至2020年5月3日印度政府官方网站上的每日病例数和发布通知的数据。对政府发布的通知进行了主题分析的定性评估。用R软件观察累积病例数据的拟合情况，并检查其线性、对数、多项式和指数增长情况。根据当前病例数与前一日病例数的差值计算每日增长系数（G），然后估算每日倍增时间（T）。
录入每日报告的病例数，观察到病例的累积增长呈多项式增长模式（三阶），拟合效果较好（R：0.999）。共发布了108份通知，与第0阶段和第1阶段（87.0%）相比，研究期间第2阶段发布的通知较少（12.9%）。与第0阶段和第1阶段相比，第2阶段累积病例数和T的上升趋势较高。
在封锁的各个阶段，随着新冠病毒疾病病例数呈上升趋势，该国成功增加了病例的倍增时间，努力使疫情曲线平缓化。
