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刻画中国首次疫情暴发中新冠病毒传播动力学的关键特征:基于模型的估计

Characterizing key attributes of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in China's original outbreak: Model-based estimations.

作者信息

Ayoub Houssein H, Chemaitelly Hiam, Mumtaz Ghina R, Seedat Shaheen, Awad Susanne F, Makhoul Monia, Abu-Raddad Laith J

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.

出版信息

Glob Epidemiol. 2020 Nov;2:100042. doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100042. Epub 2020 Nov 18.

Abstract

A novel coronavirus strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China. This study aims to characterize key attributes of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology as the infection emerged in China. An age-stratified mathematical model was constructed to describe transmission dynamics and estimate age-specific differences in biological susceptibility to infection, age-assortativeness in transmission mixing, and transition in rate of infectious contacts (and reproduction number ) following introduction of mass interventions. The model estimated the infectious contact rate in early epidemic at 0.59 contacts/day (95% uncertainty interval-UI = 0.48-0.71). Relative to those 60-69 years, susceptibility was 0.06 in those ≤19 years, 0.34 in 20-29 years, 0.57 in 30-39 years, 0.69 in 40-49 years, 0.79 in 50-59 years, 0.94 in 70-79 years, and 0.88 in ≥80 years. Assortativeness in transmission mixing by age was limited at 0.004 (95% UI = 0.002-0.008). rapidly declined from 2.1 (95% UI = 1.8-2.4) to 0.06 (95% UI = 0.05-0.07) following interventions' onset. Age appears to be a principal factor in explaining the transmission patterns in China. The biological susceptibility to infection seems limited among children but high among those >50 years. There was no evidence for differential contact mixing by age.

摘要

一种新型冠状病毒毒株——严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)在中国出现。本研究旨在描述SARS-CoV-2在中国出现感染时的流行病学关键特征。构建了一个按年龄分层的数学模型,以描述传播动态,并估计感染的生物学易感性、传播混合中的年龄相关性以及大规模干预措施实施后感染接触率(和基本再生数)的变化。该模型估计,疫情初期的感染接触率为0.59次接触/天(95%不确定区间-UI = 0.48-0.71)。相对于60-69岁人群,19岁及以下人群的易感性为0.06,20-29岁人群为0.34,30-39岁人群为0.57,40-49岁人群为0.69,50-59岁人群为0.79,70-79岁人群为0.94,80岁及以上人群为0.88。按年龄进行的传播混合中的相关性有限,为0.004(95% UI = 0.002-0.008)。干预措施开始后,基本再生数迅速从2.1(95% UI = 1.8-2.4)降至0.06(95% UI = 0.05-0.07)。年龄似乎是解释中国传播模式的主要因素。儿童对感染的生物学易感性似乎有限,但50岁以上人群易感性较高。没有证据表明存在按年龄的差异接触混合情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/7673212/dd9f0a796c94/gr1.jpg

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