Ilesanmi Olayinka Stephen, Akande Abayomi, Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Pan Afr Med J. 2020 Jul 6;35(Suppl 2):103. doi: 10.11604/pamj.supp.2020.35.2.24217. eCollection 2020.
The coronavirus infection (COVID-19) to date has no vaccine or effective treatment. Herd immunity offers indirect protection to susceptible members of the population. If the acquired immunity of a community rises above 67%, then a gradual decline in the number of incident cases is recorded. How many deaths would have occurred in the West African countries by the time at least 67% of our people are infected with the present case fatality rate (CFR)? The objective of this study was to develop a forecast of the number of COVID-19 deaths that would be recorded to attain herd immunity for each country in West-Africa. We predicted the numbers of deaths using publicly available demographic and COVID-19 data. To attain herd immunity in West Africa 5.2 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred assuming the CFR is maintained at the current rates in the region. Attention should be focused on strategies that would limit the spread of infection and protect the most vulnerable population groups while the race to develop an effective vaccine should be hastened.
迄今为止，冠状病毒感染（COVID-19）尚无疫苗或有效治疗方法。群体免疫为人群中的易感成员提供间接保护。如果一个社区的获得性免疫力升至67%以上，那么就会记录到发病病例数量逐渐下降。按照目前的病死率（CFR），当我们至少67%的人口感染时，西非国家会有多少人死亡？本研究的目的是预测西非每个国家为实现群体免疫将记录的COVID-19死亡人数。我们使用公开可用的人口统计数据和COVID-19数据预测死亡人数。假设CFR维持在该地区目前的水平，为在西非实现群体免疫，将会有520万例COVID-19死亡病例。应将注意力集中在限制感染传播和保护最脆弱人群群体的策略上，同时应加快研发有效疫苗的竞赛。
