National Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Precision Surgery and Regenerative Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China.
Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 7;10(1):21376. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-78545-2.
The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a research hotspot. This study aimed to incorporate important factors obtained from SEER database to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with HCC and ICC. We obtained patient data from SEER database. The nomogram was constructed base on six prognostic factors for predicting CSS rates in HCC patients. The nomogram was validated by concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curves. A total of 3227 patients diagnosed with HCC (3038) and ICC (189) between 2010 and 2015 were included in this study. The C-index of the nomogram for HCC patients was 0.790 in the training cohort and 0.806 in the validation cohort. The 3- and 5-year AUCs were 0.811 and 0.793 in the training cohort. The calibration plots indicated that there was good agreement between the actual observations and predictions. In conclusion, we constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting the 3- and 5-year CSS in HCC patients. We have confirmed the precise calibration and excellent discrimination power of our nomogram.
肝细胞癌（HCC）和肝内胆管细胞癌（ICC）患者的预后是研究热点。本研究旨在纳入从 SEER 数据库获得的重要因素，构建并验证用于预测 HCC 和 ICC 患者癌症特异性生存（CSS）的列线图。我们从 SEER 数据库中获取患者数据。该列线图基于预测 HCC 患者 CSS 率的六个预后因素构建。通过一致性指数（C-index）、接收者操作特征（ROC）曲线和校准曲线对列线图进行验证。本研究共纳入 2010 年至 2015 年间诊断为 HCC（3038 例）和 ICC（189 例）的 3227 例患者。HCC 患者列线图在训练队列中的 C-index 为 0.790，在验证队列中的 C-index 为 0.806。训练队列中 3 年和 5 年 AUC 分别为 0.811 和 0.793。校准图表明实际观察值与预测值之间具有良好的一致性。总之，我们构建并验证了用于预测 HCC 患者 3 年和 5 年 CSS 的列线图。我们已经证实了我们的列线图具有精确的校准和出色的区分能力。
