School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Pathog Glob Health. 2021 Mar;115(2):93-99. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2020.1857492. Epub 2020 Dec 15.
Following the announcement of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Wuhan on 31 December 2019, government officials in Hong Kong recommended the wearing of face masks as a public infection control measure against the COVID-19 virus and curtail the impact of the concurrent influenza season. The present study evaluated the influenza-related outcomes between the influenza season 2019 and 2020 in Hong Kong as a result of these infection control measures. A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed to estimate the number of influenza cases, clinic visits, hospitalization, deaths, direct medical cost and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for the season 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 in six age groups: 0-5 years, 6-11 years, 12-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years and ≥65 years in Hong Kong. Model inputs were derived from public data and existing literature. The model findings showed significant reduction in influenza-related cases, clinic visits, hospitalization, and deaths in 2020 versus 2019 (p < 0.05). Influenza-related direct costs in all age-groups were significantly reduced by 56%-82% (p < 0.01) in 2020 versus 2019. DALYs were also significantly decreased by 58%-85% (p < 0.01). The direct cost and DALYs avoided in 2020 was the highest among the age group of 0-5 years with a cost-saving of USD593,763 (95%CI 590,730-596,796) per 10,000 population and a DALY reduction of 57.67 (95%CI 57.54-57.83) per 10,000 population. This study illustrated the reduction of all influenza-related outcome measures in Hong Kong as a result of the implementation of public infection control measures against COVID-19.
自 2019 年 12 月 31 日武汉宣布 2019 冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例以来，香港政府官员建议佩戴口罩作为针对 COVID-19 病毒的公共感染控制措施，以减少同期流感季节的影响。本研究评估了由于这些感染控制措施，香港 2019-2020 流感季节的流感相关结果。设计了一个蒙特卡罗模拟模型，以估计 2018-2019 年和 2019-2020 年六个年龄组（0-5 岁、6-11 岁、12-17 岁、18-49 岁、50-64 岁和≥65 岁）在香港的流感病例、就诊、住院、死亡、直接医疗费用和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）数量。模型输入源自公共数据和现有文献。模型结果显示，与 2019 年相比，2020 年流感相关病例、就诊、住院和死亡人数显著减少（p<0.05）。所有年龄组的流感相关直接费用在 2020 年比 2019 年显著减少 56%-82%（p<0.01）。2020 年 DALYs 也显著减少 58%-85%（p<0.01）。2020 年避免的直接成本和 DALYs 在 0-5 岁年龄组中最高，为每 10,000 人节省 593,763 美元（95%CI 590,730-596,796），每 10,000 人减少 57.67 个 DALY（95%CI 57.54-57.83）。本研究说明了由于实施针对 COVID-19 的公共感染控制措施，香港所有流感相关结果指标均有所减少。
