Luo Lisha, Jiang Junfeng, Yu Chuanhua, Zhao Mingjuan, Wang Yunyun, Li Quanlei, Jin Yinghui
Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Front Neurosci. 2020 Dec 1;14:552113. doi: 10.3389/fnins.2020.552113. eCollection 2020.
Stroke is the first leading cause of death in China, and low fruit intake is suggested to be one of the most important risk factors for stroke mortality. However, the trends of stroke mortality attributable to low fruit intake remain unclear in China. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the long-term trends of stroke mortality attributable to low fruit intake by sex in China during 1990-2017. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study; the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis, and the net age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using the age-period-cohort model with an intrinsic estimator algorithm (APC-IE). The crude mortality rates (CMRs) increased for males and decreased for females from 1990 to 2017. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for both males and females showed consecutive significant declines from 1990 to 2017. By APC analysis, substantially increasing age effects were presented from 25 to 79 years for both sexes. The independent period and cohort effects progressively decreased during the entire period for both sexes, with a faster decrease for females than for males. Males and elder groups were the high-risk population for stroke mortality caused by low fruit intake. Although the mortality risk showed a decreasing trend, the fruit intake was still low for the Chinese population. Therefore, effective strategies and global awareness are essential to improve the current situation of low fruit intake, thereby preventing and reducing the stroke mortality risk caused by low fruit intake in China.
中风是中国首要的致死原因，水果摄入量低被认为是中风死亡率最重要的风险因素之一。然而，在中国，因水果摄入量低导致的中风死亡率趋势仍不明确。因此，本研究旨在调查1990 - 2017年期间中国因水果摄入量低导致的中风死亡率按性别划分的长期趋势。数据来自《2017年全球疾病负担》研究；通过连接点回归分析估计年度百分比变化（APC）和平均年度百分比变化（AAPC），并使用具有内在估计器算法的年龄 - 时期 - 队列模型（APC - IE）估计净年龄、时期和队列效应。1990年至2017年，男性的粗死亡率（CMR）上升，女性的粗死亡率下降。1990年至2017年，男性和女性的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）均呈连续显著下降。通过APC分析，25岁至79岁的男女年龄效应均大幅增加。在整个时期内，男女的独立时期和队列效应逐渐下降，女性下降速度比男性快。男性和老年群体是因水果摄入量低导致中风死亡的高危人群。尽管死亡风险呈下降趋势，但中国人群的水果摄入量仍然较低。因此，有效的策略和全球意识对于改善当前水果摄入量低的状况至关重要，从而预防和降低中国因水果摄入量低导致的中风死亡风险。
