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COVID-19 的十个流行病学参数:利用快速文献综述为大流行期间的预测模型提供信息。

Ten Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19: Use of Rapid Literature Review to Inform Predictive Models During the Pandemic.

机构信息

Tropical Medicine Center, University of Brasília (UnB), Brasília, Brazil.

Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Tocantins (Instituto Federal Do Tocantins-IFTO), Araguaína, Brazil.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2020 Dec 1;8:598547. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.598547. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

To describe the methods used in a rapid review of the literature and to present the main epidemiological parameters that describe the transmission of SARS-Cov-2 and the illness caused by this virus, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This is a methodological protocol that enabled a rapid review of COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. The protocol consisted of the following steps: definition of scope; eligibility criteria; information sources; search strategies; selection of studies; and data extraction. Four reviewers and three supervisors conducted this review in 40 days. Of the 1,266 studies found, 65 were included, mostly observational and descriptive in content, indicating relative homogeneity as to the quality of the evidence. The variation in the basic reproduction number, between 0.48 and 14.8; and the median of the hospitalization period, between 7.5 and 20.5 days stand out as key findings. We identified and synthesized 10 epidemiological parameters that may support predictive models and other rapid reviews to inform modeling of this and other future public health emergencies.

摘要

描述文献快速综述中使用的方法,并呈现描述 SARS-CoV-2 传播和由该病毒引起的疾病,即 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的主要流行病学参数。这是一项能够对 COVID-19 流行病学参数进行快速综述的方法学方案。该方案包括以下步骤:定义范围;资格标准;信息来源;搜索策略;研究选择;以及数据提取。四名审查员和三名主管在 40 天内进行了这项综述。在发现的 1266 项研究中,有 65 项被纳入,内容主要是观察性和描述性的,表明证据质量相对同质。基本繁殖数在 0.48 和 14.8 之间变化,住院期间中位数在 7.5 和 20.5 天之间变化,这是关键发现。我们确定并综合了 10 个流行病学参数,这些参数可能支持预测模型和其他快速综述,为该模型和其他未来的公共卫生紧急情况提供信息。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3492/7735986/c93e7878ee89/fpubh-08-598547-g0001.jpg

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