George Michael D, Holder Harold D, McKenzie Paul N, Mueller Heather R, Herchek Donna C, Faile Barry S
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Columbia, SC, USA.
Prevention Research Center, Oakland, CA, USA.
J Prim Prev. 2018 Feb;39(1):47-58. doi: 10.1007/s10935-017-0499-y.
We tested the generalizability of a science-based community prevention design to reduce DUI crashes. Previous researcher-led studies have confirmed the effects of an intervention design of visible enforcement coupled with heightened public awareness of enforcement to increase driver perception of likely detection for drinking and driving. A community coalition based the project on a prevention intervention model that included two key intermediate variables: levels of visible enforcement and of public awareness of enforcement. We evaluated the project using community-specific monthly time-series measures of DUI crashes and state level trends in DUI crashes, indicators of enforcement, and public attention to enforcement. We devised the evaluation design to determine if an observed trend in DUI crashes declined and to verify if key intermediate variables increased, as stimulated by local efforts. DUI crash analysis documented an upward trend during a pre-trial period from July 2010-December 2011, which matched the upward trend in state DUI crashes. After the local intervention began in January 2012, local DUI crashes began a clear downward trend (average 2013 crashes were 23% lower than in 2012 and a 5-month post-intervention average from 2013 was lower than the equivalent 5-month pre-intervention average). This contrasted with the continued upward state DUI crash trend, with a 2-year increase of 16%. The downward trend in local crashes was associated with an increase in DUI enforcement as well as news stories concerning DUI enforcement that were stimulated by the efforts of the community prevention project. These results confirm the generalizability of two previous community research trials that were conducted with limited or no research resources or leadership. We discuss the importance of controlling for external factors in attributing causation in a local prevention evaluation by confirming both sufficient local prevention efforts and a decline in DUI crashes.
我们测试了一种基于科学的社区预防设计在减少酒驾撞车事故方面的通用性。先前由研究人员主导的研究已经证实了一种干预设计的效果,即明显的执法行动与提高公众对执法的认识相结合,以增强司机对酒驾可能被发现的感知。一个社区联盟将该项目建立在一个预防干预模型之上,该模型包括两个关键的中间变量:明显执法的水平和公众对执法的认识水平。我们使用特定社区每月的酒驾撞车事故时间序列测量数据以及州一级酒驾撞车事故趋势、执法指标和公众对执法的关注度来评估该项目。我们设计了评估方案,以确定观察到的酒驾撞车事故趋势是否下降,并核实关键中间变量是否如当地努力所推动的那样增加。酒驾撞车事故分析记录了2010年7月至2011年12月 pretrial 期间的上升趋势,这与该州酒驾撞车事故的上升趋势相匹配。在2012年1月开始当地干预措施后,当地酒驾撞车事故开始呈现明显的下降趋势(2013年的平均撞车事故比2012年低23%,2013年干预后5个月的平均事故数低于干预前同等5个月的平均数)。这与该州酒驾撞车事故持续上升的趋势形成对比,该州两年内上升了16%。当地撞车事故的下降趋势与酒驾执法力度的增加以及社区预防项目努力所引发的关于酒驾执法的新闻报道有关。这些结果证实了之前两项在有限或没有研究资源或领导力的情况下进行的社区研究试验的通用性。我们通过确认足够的当地预防努力和酒驾撞车事故的下降,讨论了在当地预防评估中控制外部因素以归因因果关系的重要性。