Yao Julie, Johnson Mark B, Tippetts Scott
Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA.
Addiction. 2016 Mar;111(3):448-53. doi: 10.1111/add.13198.
Alcohol-impaired driving contributes to more than 10 000 fatalities in the United States each year. This research estimated the unique effect of enforcement intensity on reductions in alcohol-impaired fatal crashes.
We collected data from 30 states (including the District of Columbia) that experienced the greatest changes in alcohol-impaired fatal crashes from 1996 to 2006. Mixed-model regression was used to examine the extent to which year-over-year changes in the intensity of impaired driving enforcement predicted year-over-year reductions of drivers killed in alcohol-involved fatal crashes.
Data from 30 states were obtained online.
Aggregate state-level data from a total of 279 state-year combinations were analyzed.
Our dependent measure was the ratio of drivers involved in fatal crashes with blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) ≥ 0.08 g/dl over drivers involved in fatal crashes with BACs = 0.00 g/dl. Per capita driving under the influence (DUI) arrests and traffic enforcement funding were the primary predictors. Covariates were estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT); the proportional distributions of gender and racial/ethnic; geographic distribution; the proportion of drivers aged 21-34 years; median family income; and education level.
Analysis revealed that DUI arrests per capita uniquely and significantly predicted reductions in the ratio of fatal crashes (β = -0.753, t(238) = 2.1, P < 0.05) after controlling the covariates. Exploratory analysis suggests the increase in arrest rates was associated with stronger reductions in urban versus rural settings.
Drunk driving enforcement intensity uniquely contributes to reductions in alcohol-impaired crash fatalities after controlling for other factors.
在美国，每年因酒驾导致的死亡人数超过10000人。本研究估计了执法力度对减少酒驾致死事故的独特影响。
我们收集了1996年至2006年期间酒驾致死事故变化最大的30个州（包括哥伦比亚特区）的数据。采用混合模型回归来检验酒驾执法力度的逐年变化在多大程度上预测了酒驾致死事故中死亡司机数量的逐年减少。
从网上获取了30个州的数据。
分析了总共279个州年组合的州级汇总数据。
我们的因变量是血液酒精浓度（BAC）≥0.08 g/dl的致命事故中涉及的司机与BAC = 0.00 g/dl的致命事故中涉及的司机的比例。人均酒后驾车（DUI）逮捕人数和交通执法资金是主要预测因素。协变量包括估计的车辆行驶里程（VMT）；性别和种族/族裔的比例分布；地理分布；21 - 34岁司机的比例；家庭收入中位数；以及教育水平。
分析表明，在控制协变量后，人均DUI逮捕人数能够独特且显著地预测致命事故比例的下降（β = -0.753，t(238) = 2.1，P < 0.05）。探索性分析表明，逮捕率的增加与城市地区相比农村地区更强的降幅相关。
在控制其他因素后，酒驾执法力度对减少酒驾事故致死人数有独特贡献。
