Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA.
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jan 8;12(1):151. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20391-x.
Mosquito-borne viruses threaten the Caribbean due to the region's tropical climate and seasonal reception of international tourists. Outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika have demonstrated the rapidity with which these viruses can spread. Concurrently, dengue fever cases have climbed over the past decade. Sustainable disease control measures are urgently needed to quell virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks. Here, to improve upon current control methods, we analyze temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018. The viruses that cause these outbreaks are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are sensitive to seasonal climatological variability. We evaluate whether climate and the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue outbreaks could explain patterns of emerging disease outbreaks. We find that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengue outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.
由于加勒比地区的热带气候和季节性接待国际游客，蚊媒病毒对其构成威胁。基孔肯雅热和寨卡热的爆发表明这些病毒传播的速度有多快。与此同时，登革热病例在过去十年中攀升。迫切需要可持续的疾病控制措施来遏制病毒传播并防止未来的爆发。在这里，为了改进当前的控制方法，我们分析了 2012 年至 2018 年期间多米尼加共和国报告的基孔肯雅热、寨卡热和登革热爆发的时间和空间模式。导致这些爆发的病毒由对季节性气候变异性敏感的伊蚊传播。我们评估气候和登革热爆发的时空动态是否可以解释新出现疾病爆发的模式。我们发现，新出现的疾病爆发对定义季节性登革热爆发动态的气候和时空限制具有稳健性，这表明需要进行持续监测，以防止未来的健康危机。
