Ward Delphi, Melbourne-Thomas Jessica, Pecl Gretta T, Evans Karen, Green Madeline, McCormack Phillipa C, Novaglio Camilla, Trebilco Rowan, Bax Narissa, Brasier Madeleine J, Cavan Emma L, Edgar Graham, Hunt Heather L, Jansen Jan, Jones Russ, Lea Mary-Anne, Makomere Reuben, Mull Chris, Semmens Jayson M, Shaw Janette, Tinch Dugald, van Steveninck Tatiana J, Layton Cayne
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia.
Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia.
Rev Fish Biol Fish. 2022;32(1):65-100. doi: 10.1007/s11160-022-09700-3. Epub 2022 Mar 7.
Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.
海洋生态系统及其相关的生物多样性维持着地球上的生命,并具有内在价值。关键的海洋生态系统服务包括维持全球氧气和碳循环、生产食物和能源以及维持人类福祉。然而,由于对海洋环境的不可持续利用和快速变化的气候,海洋生态系统正在迅速退化。因此,未来的根本挑战是在继续为全球人口提供重要资源的同时,保护海洋生态系统的生物多样性、功能和适应能力。在此,我们运用前瞻性/回溯性分析来思考2030年的两种可能未来:一种是照常发展轨迹(即延续当前趋势),另一种是更具可持续性但在技术上可行的、符合联合国可持续发展目标的未来。我们确定了区分这些不同未来的关键驱动因素,并利用这些因素制定通往理想的、更具可持续性未来的行动路径。实现更具可持续性未来的关键将是建立综合(即跨辖区和部门)的适应性管理,以支持对海洋环境进行公平和可持续的管理。保护海洋生态系统将需要重新调整我们与海洋环境的社会、金融和产业关系。虽然可持续的未来需要2030年以后的长期规划和承诺,但需要立即采取行动以避免临界点并避免生态系统衰退的轨迹。通过立即采取行动优化海洋生态系统的管理和保护,利用现有技术,并保护剩余的生物多样性,我们可以为2030年及以后的可持续未来创造最佳机会。