Aldridge Robert W, Lewer Dan, Beale Sarah, Johnson Anne M, Zambon Maria, Hayward Andrew C, Fragaszy Ellen B
UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.
UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.
Wellcome Open Res. 2020 Dec 10;5:52. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15812.2. eCollection 2020.
There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The intensity and duration of this first and second waves in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develop immunity to reinfection in the short term. In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England. In this analysis of the Flu Watch cohort, we examine seasonal trends for PCR-confirmed coronavirus infections (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E) in all participants during winter seasons (2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009) and during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (May-Sep 2009). We also included data from the pandemic and 'post-pandemic' winter seasons (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) to identify individuals with two confirmed HCoV infections and examine evidence for immunity against homologous reinfection. We tested 1,104 swabs taken during respiratory illness and detected HCoV in 199 during the first four seasons. The rate of confirmed HCoV infection across all seasons was 390 (95% CI 338-448) per 100,000 person-weeks; highest in the Nov-Mar 2008/9 season at 674 (95%CI 537-835) per 100,000 person-weeks. The highest rate was in February at 759 (95% CI 580-975) per 100,000 person-weeks. Data collected during May-Sep 2009 showed there was small amounts of ongoing transmission, with four cases detected during this period. Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice. Our results provide evidence that HCoV infection in England is most intense in winter, but that there is a small amount of ongoing transmission during summer periods. We found some evidence of immunity against homologous reinfection.
目前正在发生由新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2引起的大流行。英国第一波和第二波疫情的强度和持续时间可能取决于SARS-CoV-2在冬季是否比夏季传播得更有效，而且英国政府的应对措施部分基于这样一种假设，即感染者在短期内会产生对再次感染的免疫力。在本文中，我们通过一项在英格兰进行的前瞻性队列研究，研究实验室确诊的季节性冠状病毒（HCoV）的季节性和免疫证据。在对流感观察队列的这项分析中，我们研究了冬季（2006 - 2007年、2007 - 2008年、2008 - 2009年）以及2009年H1N1流感大流行第一波期间（2009年5月至9月）所有参与者中经PCR确诊的冠状病毒感染（HCoV-NL63、HCoV-OC43和HCoV-229E）的季节性趋势。我们还纳入了大流行期间和“大流行后”冬季（2009 - 2010年和2010 - 2011年）的数据，以识别有两次确诊HCoV感染的个体，并研究针对同源再次感染的免疫证据。我们检测了在呼吸道疾病期间采集的1104份拭子，在前四个季节中检测到199份含有HCoV。所有季节中确诊的HCoV感染率为每10万人周390例（95%置信区间338 - 448）；在2008/9年11月至3月季节最高，为每10万人周674例（95%置信区间537 - 835）。最高感染率出现在2月，为每10万人周759例（95%置信区间580 - 975）。2009年5月至9月期间收集的数据显示仍有少量传播，在此期间检测到4例病例。8名参与者有两次确诊感染，其中没有一人两次感染的是同一毒株。我们的结果提供了证据表明，英格兰的HCoV感染在冬季最为严重，但在夏季也有少量持续传播。我们发现了一些针对同源再次感染的免疫证据。
