Department of Physics, Research Center for Academic Excellence in Applied Physics, Faculty of Science, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, 65000, Thailand.
INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Université Clermont Auvergne, 63122, Saint Genès Champanelle, France.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 15;11(1):1486. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x.
The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.
泰国每年都会爆发人类钩端螺旋体病疫情。在这项研究中，我们开发了数学模型来研究人类、动物和受污染环境之间的传播动态。我们比较了不同的钩端螺旋体传播模型，这些模型涉及洪水和天气条件、受污染环境中的脱落和繁殖率。我们发现，传播率取决于洪水和温度的模型最符合泰国报告的人类钩端螺旋体病数据。我们的研究结果表明，洪水对疾病传播有很大的影响，高度的洪水会导致更多的感染个体。敏感性分析表明，从受污染环境中传播钩端螺旋体的速度是人类病例总数的最重要参数。我们的研究结果表明，公众教育应该针对在受污染环境中工作的人群，以预防钩端螺旋体感染。
