Betsch Tilmann, Lindow Stefanie, Lehmann Anne, Stenmans Rachel
Department of Psychology, University of Erfurt, Nordhaeuser Strasse 63, D-99089, Erfurt, Germany.
Mem Cognit. 2021 May;49(4):826-842. doi: 10.3758/s13421-020-01127-0. Epub 2021 Jan 15.
In a probabilistic inference task (three probabilistic cues predict outcomes for two options), we examined decisions from 233 children (5-6 vs. 9-10 years). Contiguity (low vs. high; i.e., position of probabilistic information far vs. close to options) and demand for selectivity (low vs. high; i.e., showing predictions of desired vs. desired and undesired outcomes) were varied as configural aspects of the presentation format. Probability utilization was measured by the frequency of following the predictions of the highest validity cue in choice. High contiguity and low demand for selectivity strongly and moderately increased probability utilization, respectively. Children are influenced by presentation format when using probabilities as decision weights. They benefit from perception-like presentations that present probabilities and options as compounds.
在一项概率推理任务中（三个概率线索预测两个选项的结果），我们考察了233名儿童（5 - 6岁与9 - 10岁）的决策。相邻性（低与高；即概率信息与选项的位置远与近）和选择性需求（低与高；即显示期望结果与期望和非期望结果的预测）作为呈现格式的构型方面而变化。概率利用率通过在选择中遵循最高有效性线索预测的频率来衡量。高相邻性和低选择性需求分别强烈和适度地提高了概率利用率。儿童在将概率用作决策权重时会受到呈现格式的影响。他们受益于将概率和选项作为组合呈现的类似感知的呈现方式。
