Ceglar A, Toreti A, Zampieri M, Manstretta V, Bettati T, Bratu M
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy.
HORTA, Via Egidio Gorra 55, 29122 Piacenza, Italy.
Clim Serv. 2020 Dec;20:100197. doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100197.
Crop yields are affected by unfavourable/extreme weather and climate events occurring during sensitive growth stages. Understanding the risks associated with these events is essential to adapt agro-management decisions and reduce losses. For this purpose, we propose a targeted climate service integrating a dynamic crop phenology model with an approach based on dedicated agro-climate risk indicators. The initial set of these indicators has been developed in a co-design approach with agronomists and durum wheat farmers participating as end-users in the H2020-MedGOLD project. Four groups of indicators characterize drought events, excessive wetness, cold stress and heat stress during sensitive growth stages. The proposed approach has been fully implemented as an R-package named . The package is complemented with a set of optimization functions, which target optimal variety selection in terms of crop cycle duration.
作物产量受到敏感生长阶段出现的不利/极端天气和气候事件的影响。了解与这些事件相关的风险对于调整农业管理决策和减少损失至关重要。为此,我们提出了一种有针对性的气候服务,将动态作物物候模型与基于专用农业气候风险指标的方法相结合。这些指标的初始集是通过与农学家和硬粒小麦种植者共同设计的方法开发的,他们作为最终用户参与了H2020-MedGOLD项目。四组指标表征了敏感生长阶段的干旱事件、过度潮湿、冷胁迫和热胁迫。所提出的方法已作为一个名为 的R包完全实现。该包还配有一组优化函数,其目标是在作物周期持续时间方面进行最佳品种选择。