Climate Impacts Laboratory, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland.
Past Landscape Dynamic Laboratory, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland.
Int J Biometeorol. 2021 Sep;65(9):1567-1578. doi: 10.1007/s00484-020-02069-7. Epub 2021 Jan 21.
Significant changes in climate variables in the last decades resulted in changes of perceived climate conditions. However, there are only few studies discussing long-lasting changes in bioclimatic conditions. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous heat and cold stress conditions in different regions of Poland. Its focus is on long-lasting changes in such conditions in the period 1951-2018. To assess changes in hazardous thermal stress conditions, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used. UTCI values at 12 UTC hour (respectively 1 pm winter time, 2 pm summer time) were calculated daily based on air temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover and wind speed at 24 stations representing the whole area of Poland. We found that the greatest changes were observed in minimum (1.33 °C/10 years) and average (0.52 °C/10 years) UTCI values as well as in cold stress frequency (- 4.00 days per 10 years). The changes vary seasonally and regionally. The greatest increase in UTCImin and decrease in cold stress days were noted from November to March and had the highest values in north-east and east Poland, and also in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The trends in maximum UTCI are much smaller and not always positive. The spatially averaged trend in UTCImax for Poland as a whole was 0.35 °C/10 years and the increase in heat stress days was 0.80 days/10 years. The highest increases in UTCImax and heat stress days were noted in eastern and south-eastern Poland.
在过去几十年中，气候变量发生了重大变化，导致人们感受到的气候条件也发生了变化。然而，仅有少数研究讨论了生物气候条件的长期变化。因此，本文的目的是展示波兰不同地区危险热和冷应激条件的时间和空间分布。其重点是研究 1951-2018 年期间这些条件的长期变化。为了评估危险热应激条件的变化，使用了通用热气候指数（UTCI）。根据代表波兰全境的 24 个气象站的气温、相对湿度、总云量和风速，每天计算 12 UTC 时（分别为冬季 1 点，夏季 2 点）的 UTCI 值。我们发现，最小（1.33°C/10 年）和平均（0.52°C/10 年）UTCI 值以及冷应激频率（每 10 年减少 4.00 天）的变化最大。这些变化具有季节性和区域性差异。UTCImin 的增加和冷应激天数的减少在 11 月至 3 月最为明显，在波兰东北部和东部以及喀尔巴阡山脉的山麓地区，这些变化的数值最大。最大 UTCI 的变化趋势则小得多，且并不总是呈正值。波兰整体平均的 UTCImax 呈上升趋势，其空间趋势为 0.35°C/10 年，热应激天数增加了 0.80 天/10 年。在波兰东部和东南部，UTCImax 和热应激天数的增加幅度最大。
