Haastrup S, Jepsen P W
Nordvang Hospital, Department of Psychiatry P, Glostrup, Denmark.
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1988 Jan;77(1):22-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1988.tb05071.x.
A cohort of 300 young opioid addicts (203 male and 97 female) attending the City of Copenhagen Drug Treatment Service (200) or the Nordvang Hospital (100) for first-time treatment during 1973 was personally followed up in 1980 and 1984. In both studies about 90% were traced. Outcome was classified on a four-step scale according to current drug status and occupational status. In 1984 24% of the cohort were classified in the best outcome class while 26% were dead, yielding an average mortality of 2.4% per year. Sixteen per cent were classified as substance users, including persons mostly abusing alcohol or tranquilizers. In contrast to our predictions in 1980 the number of persons achieving stable abstinence does not turn out to be steadily increasing with time. The number of active drug addicts declines mainly because they die, not because they achieve abstinence. According to more strict criteria less than 20% would be classified as truly recovered. Another 5 - 10% achieve some unstable abstinence. The long-term prognosis seems to be highly unfavourable for the study population as a whole.
1973年期间，有300名首次接受治疗的年轻阿片类药物成瘾者（203名男性和97名女性），他们分别在哥本哈根市戒毒治疗服务中心（200人）或诺德vang医院（100人）接受治疗，并于1980年和1984年接受了个人随访。在两项研究中，约90%的人被追踪到。根据当前的药物使用状况和职业状况，结果被分为四个等级。1984年，该队列中有24%的人被归类为最佳结果等级，而26%的人死亡，年平均死亡率为2.4%。16%的人被归类为物质使用者，包括主要滥用酒精或镇静剂的人。与我们1980年的预测相反，实现稳定戒断的人数并没有随着时间的推移而稳步增加。活跃吸毒者的数量下降主要是因为他们死亡，而不是因为他们实现了戒断。根据更严格的标准，不到20%的人会被归类为真正康复。另外5%-10%的人实现了某种不稳定的戒断。总体而言，该研究人群的长期预后似乎非常不利。
