Osman Montasir Ahmed
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Education, University of Kassala, Kassala, Sudan.
Heliyon. 2022 Oct;8(10):e10901. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10901. Epub 2022 Oct 2.
Climate variables play a critical role in COVID-19's spread. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of average temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in Africa's first four affected countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, and Ethiopia). As a result, policymakers should develop effective COVID-19 spread control strategies. For each country, using daily data of confirmed cases and weather variables from May 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, generalized linear models (Poisson regression) and general linear models were estimated. According to the findings, the rising average temperature causes COVID-19 daily new cases to increase in South Africa and Ethiopia while decreasing in Morocco and Tunisia. However, in Tunisia, the relative humidity and daily new cases of COVID-19 are positively correlated, while in the other three countries, they are negatively associated.
气候变量在新冠疫情传播中起着关键作用。因此，本研究旨在分析平均温度和相对湿度对非洲首批四个受影响国家（南非、摩洛哥、突尼斯和埃塞俄比亚）新冠疫情传播的影响。结果表明，政策制定者应制定有效的新冠疫情传播控制策略。对于每个国家，利用2020年5月1日至2021年4月30日的确诊病例每日数据和气象变量，估计了广义线性模型（泊松回归）和一般线性模型。研究结果显示，平均温度上升导致南非和埃塞俄比亚的新冠每日新增病例增加，而在摩洛哥和突尼斯则减少。然而，在突尼斯，相对湿度与新冠每日新增病例呈正相关，而在其他三个国家则呈负相关。
