童婚：幼女的年龄估计问题。
Child brides: the age estimation problem in young girls.
机构信息
AgEstimation Project, Macerata Italy.
Department of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Molise, Campobasso, Italy.
出版信息
J Forensic Odontostomatol. 2020 Dec 30;38(3):2-7.
The aim of this work is to study a sample of girls from 15 different countries using Third Molar Maturity Index (I3M ), to assess the probability that a girl has reached the legal age of 18 years. The studied sample consisted of 3228 Orthopantomograms of healthy female subjects from 15 different countries. The cut-off value of I3M = 0.08 was tested to discriminate adults (≥18 years) and minors (<18 years). X-ray images were processed by computer-aided drafting program ImageJ. The information on sensitivity and specificity of I3M coming from the 15 countries was pooled together using a bivariate Bayesian modeling approach. Specificity of the I3M test did not change when the country was considered, and its value remains greater than 85% for each studied country. This method is useful to estimate the age of the girls involved in suspected early marriage because of the high probability of correctly identifying a minor with similar results observed among tested populations.
本研究旨在使用第三磨牙成熟度指数（I3M）对来自 15 个不同国家的 15 名女孩进行样本研究，以评估女孩达到法定 18 岁年龄的概率。研究样本由来自 15 个不同国家的 3228 名健康女性的全景 X 光片组成。测试 I3M=0.08 的截止值，以区分成年人（≥18 岁）和未成年人（<18 岁）。X 射线图像由计算机辅助制图程序 ImageJ 进行处理。使用双变量贝叶斯建模方法汇总来自 15 个国家的 I3M 灵敏度和特异性信息。当考虑国家时，I3M 测试的特异性没有变化，并且其值对于每个研究国家都保持在 85%以上。由于该方法能够以类似的方式正确识别未成年人，因此对于因涉嫌早婚而涉及的女孩的年龄估计非常有用，其结果在测试人群中观察到的概率很高。
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