School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2021 Sep;75(9):824-828. doi: 10.1136/jech-2020-214169. Epub 2021 Jan 28.
After the first COVID-19 case detected on 8 December 2019 in Wuhan, the Provincial Capital of Hubei, the epidemic quickly spread throughout the whole country of China. Low developmental levels are often associated with infectious disease epidemic, this study attempted to test this notion with COVID-19 data.
Data by province from 8 December 2019 to 16 February 2020 were analysed using regression method. Outcomes were days from the first COVID-19 case in the origin of Hubei Province to the date when case was first detected in a destination province, and cumulative number of confirmed cases. Provincial gross domestic products (GDPs) were used to predict the outcomes while considering spatial distance and population density.
Of the total 70 548 COVID-19 cases in all 31 provinces, 58 182 (82.5%) were detected in Hubei and 12 366 (17.5%) in other destination provinces. Regression analysis of data from the 30 provinces indicated that GDP was negatively associated with days of virus spreading (β=-0.2950, p<0.10) and positively associated with cumulative cases (β=97.8709, p<0.01) after controlling for spatial distance. The relationships were reversed with β=0.1287 (p<0.01) for days and β=-54.3756 (p<0.01) for cumulative cases after weighing in population density and controlling for spatial distance.
Higher levels of developmental is a risk factor for cross-province spread of COVID-19. This study adds new data to literature regarding the role of economic growth in facilitating spatial spreading of infectious diseases, and provides timely data informing antiepidemic strategies and developmental plan to balance economic growth and people's health.
2019 年 12 月 8 日湖北省省会武汉首次发现 COVID-19 病例后，疫情迅速蔓延至中国全境。发展水平较低通常与传染病疫情有关，本研究试图用 COVID-19 数据来验证这一观点。
使用回归分析方法对 2019 年 12 月 8 日至 2020 年 2 月 16 日按省份划分的数据进行分析。结果为从湖北省首例 COVID-19 病例出现之日到目的地省份首次发现病例之日的天数，以及确诊病例的累计数。在考虑空间距离和人口密度的情况下，用省级国内生产总值（GDP）来预测结果。
在全国 31 个省的 70548 例 COVID-19 病例中，58182 例（82.5%）在湖北发现，12366 例（17.5%）在其他目的地省份发现。对 30 个省份的数据进行回归分析表明，在控制空间距离后，GDP 与病毒传播天数呈负相关（β=-0.2950，p<0.10），与累计病例呈正相关（β=97.8709，p<0.01）。在考虑人口密度并控制空间距离后，β=0.1287（p<0.01）与传播天数呈正相关，β=-54.3756（p<0.01）与累计病例呈负相关。
发展水平较高是 COVID-19 跨省传播的危险因素。本研究为经济增长在促进传染病的空间传播方面的作用提供了新的文献资料，并为平衡经济增长和人民健康的防疫策略和发展规划提供了及时的数据。
