Koudjom Etayibtalnam, Tamwo Sévérin, Kpognon Koffi D
Laboratory of Agricultural Economics and Applied Macroeconomics (LEAMA), University of Lomé, Lomé, Togo.
Center for Studies and Research in Economics and Management (CEREG), University of Yaoundé II-Soa, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
Health Econ Rev. 2022 Oct 10;12(1):51. doi: 10.1186/s13561-022-00399-3.
Most economies in African countries are informal. As such, households in these countries tend to face higher levels of informality coupled with a lack of social protection, and have no replacement income or savings in the event of unexpected external shocks, such as COVID-19. Thus, the COVID-19 shock and its negative economic effects triggered a cascade of income losses and bankruptcies that pushed a significant share of households in African countries into poverty. This research analyzes the effect of poverty on the spread of COVID-19 using a sample of 52 African countries.
To achieve the objective of this research, this paper uses a multiple linear regression model and a sample of 52 African countries observed in 2020 to conduct a cross-country analysis. More importantly, two COVID-19 indicators (total number of officially reported cases and disease severity) and six poverty indicators (average poverty, poverty incidence, poverty depth, poverty severity, multidimensional poverty index, and extreme poverty) were used in this research.
The results show a positive and significant relationship between poverty and the spread of COVID-19.
These results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to poor populations in African countries during the pandemic. These populations are generally vulnerable, and there is a need for support programs targeting them to be put in place quickly. These programs may include food aid, distribution of supplies, health care support, fee waivers, and interest deferrals. In addition, sensitization of these disadvantaged groups on vaccination against COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity is strongly encouraged.
非洲国家的大多数经济体都是非正规的。因此，这些国家的家庭往往面临更高程度的非正规性，同时缺乏社会保护，并且在遭遇意外外部冲击（如新冠疫情）时没有替代收入或储蓄。因此，新冠疫情冲击及其负面经济影响引发了一系列收入损失和破产，使非洲国家的大量家庭陷入贫困。本研究使用52个非洲国家的样本分析贫困对新冠疫情传播的影响。
为实现本研究的目标，本文使用多元线性回归模型，并以2020年观察到的52个非洲国家的样本进行跨国分析。更重要的是，本研究使用了两个新冠疫情指标（官方报告的病例总数和疾病严重程度）和六个贫困指标（平均贫困率、贫困发生率、贫困深度、贫困严重程度、多维贫困指数和极端贫困率）。
结果显示贫困与新冠疫情传播之间存在正相关且显著的关系。
这些结果表明，在疫情期间需要更加关注非洲国家的贫困人口。这些人群普遍脆弱，需要迅速制定针对他们的支持计划。这些计划可能包括粮食援助、物资分发、医疗支持、费用减免和利息延期。此外，强烈鼓励对这些弱势群体进行新冠疫苗接种宣传以实现群体免疫。
