Geography Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.
Nature. 2024 Jan;625(7996):722-727. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06769-z. Epub 2023 Dec 18.
Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.
生态系统为人类带来了广泛的效益，包括一些市场商品以及其他未直接反映在市场活动中的效益。气候变化将改变世界各地生态系统的分布，并改变这些效益的流动。然而，生态系统变化对人类福利的具体影响尚不清楚，因为这取决于这些变化的性质、受影响效益的价值以及社区依赖自然系统实现福祉的程度。在这里，我们根据由一般环流气候模型驱动的动态全球植被模型（DGVM）预测的气候变化引起的陆地植被覆盖变化，估计了经济生产和非市场生态系统效益价值的国家层面变化。我们的研究结果表明，在 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 情景下，与没有气候变化的基线情景相比，2100 年全球人口加权平均非市场生态系统效益的流动将减少 9.2%，而全球人口加权平均国内生产总值（GDP）的变化将减少 2100 年 GDP 的 1.3%。由于低收入国家更依赖自然资本，这些 GDP 效应是倒退的。大约 90%的这些损失由最贫穷的 50%的国家和地区承担，而最富裕的 10%只承担 2%的损失。
