School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 May 20;770:145242. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145242. Epub 2021 Jan 19.
Since the most stringent-ever clean air policy was implemented in 2013 in China, main industrial air pollutant emissions have notably decreased. However, there are few studies on air pollutant emissions of industrial sectors driven by supply chain before and after implementing this policy. This paper attempts to provide a new perspective from industrial linkage to understand the emission of air pollutants. Based on Input-Output model framework, we revealed the linkages of SO and NO emissions between sectors from 2012 to 2017 and the driving forces behind emission changes. Moreover, we simulated the possible impact of the key sector linkages on air pollutant emissions. Results show that the most noteworthy change during this period is that the metal melting sector has replaced the power sector, as the largest pollutant output emission sector associated with other sectors, especially the transport equipment sector. The main reason of this phenomena is that the emission intensity reduction rate of metal smelting sector (e.g., only 17% for NO) is far less than other sectors. In the future, the development of the equipment manufacturing may put pressure on the metal smelting sector to reduce emissions. For example, when the transport equipment sector increases total output by 20% ~ 40%, the metal smelting sector will be driven to emit 0.04Mt ~0.08Mt of NO. This paper provides a basis to quantitatively analyze the industrial sector linkages and identify the key sectors from 2012-2017, and helps decision makers better understand the impact of sector linkage on pollutant emissions.
自 2013 年中国实施有史以来最严格的清洁空气政策以来，主要工业空气污染物排放量显著下降。然而，关于实施这项政策前后供应链驱动的工业部门空气污染物排放的研究较少。本文试图从产业关联的角度提供一个新的视角来理解空气污染物的排放。基于投入产出模型框架，我们揭示了 2012 年至 2017 年各部门之间 SO 和 NO 排放的关联及其排放变化的驱动力。此外，我们模拟了关键部门关联对空气污染物排放的可能影响。结果表明，这期间最显著的变化是金属熔炼部门取代电力部门成为与其他部门（特别是运输设备部门）关联最大的污染物输出排放部门。这一现象的主要原因是金属冶炼部门的排放强度降低率（如，NO 仅为 17%）远低于其他部门。未来，设备制造业的发展可能会给金属冶炼部门减排带来压力。例如，当运输设备部门总产出增加 20%40%时，金属冶炼部门将被推动排放 0.04Mt0.08Mt 的 NO。本文为定量分析工业部门关联并识别 2012-2017 年的关键部门提供了依据，并有助于决策者更好地理解部门关联对污染物排放的影响。
