Wu Jiaxi, Chen Mengxin, Sun Xialing, Meng Zheng
School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
China Energy Engineering Group Anhui Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd, Beijing, 230601, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 29;14(1):12379. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62979-z.
Although the issue of embodied pollutants in China's supply chains has garnered increasing attention, the dynamic changes occurring within them are unclear. Several existing studies analyze one-year or short-term data in supply chain. China's overall CH emissions have risen from 41.1 Tg in 2000 to 60 Tg in 2020, so conducting long-term analyses can yield a deeper understanding of the dynamic changes across the entire supply chain from production to consumption. This study uses the environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) and structural path analysis (SPA) methods to investigate the dynamic variation of China's embodied CH emissions in 20 industry sectors from 2000 to 2020, aiming to determine the key supply chain and key sectors. The results reveal that from the final demand perspective, consumption, investment and export drove 52.1%, 32%, and 15.9% of embodied CH emissions in 2020. The sector with the highest embodied CH emissions has changed from "Agriculture" in 2000 to "Construction" in 2010 to "Other service and activities" in 2020. The top listed supply chain path of embodied CH emissions has also evolved (starting from production to consumption) from "Agriculture → Rural consumption" in 2000 to "Agriculture → Food and tobacco → Urban consumption" in 2010 to "Agriculture → Urban consumption" in 2020. Notably, the high-ranked path, "Agriculture → Food and tobacco → Rural consumption", shows that the embodied CH emission flowing between agriculture and the food industry cannot be ignored. The supply chain path "Coal Mining → Nonmetal Mineral Products → Construction → Capital Formation" has risen from 17th in 2000 to 3rd in 2020. Thus, it is necessary to control CH emissions from sectors upstream, which are predominantly influenced by the construction industry, and a coordinated effort between sectors is also required to effectively reduce emissions. By 2020, the CH emissions driven by urban consumption were 3.1 times that of rural consumption. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of China's supply chain over the past two decades. In particular, it suggests policy interventions by controlling critical supply chain paths and key sectors associated with embodied CH emission, thereby facilitating the coordinated reduction of anthropogenic CH emissions.
尽管中国供应链中隐含污染物问题已受到越来越多关注，但其内部的动态变化尚不明晰。现有几项研究分析了供应链中的一年期或短期数据。中国的甲烷总排放量已从2000年的41.1太克增至2020年的60太克，因此进行长期分析有助于更深入理解从生产到消费的整个供应链的动态变化。本研究采用环境扩展投入产出分析（EEIOA）和结构路径分析（SPA）方法，调查2000年至2020年中国20个工业部门隐含甲烷排放的动态变化，旨在确定关键供应链和关键部门。结果显示，从最终需求角度来看，2020年消费、投资和出口分别拉动了隐含甲烷排放的52.1%、32%和15.9%。隐含甲烷排放最高的部门已从2000年的“农业”变为2010年的“建筑业”，再变为2020年的“其他服务业及活动”。隐含甲烷排放位列前茅的供应链路径也发生了演变（从生产到消费），从2000年的“农业→农村消费”变为2010年的“农业→食品和烟草→城市消费”，再变为2020年的“农业→城市消费”。值得注意的是，排名靠前的路径“农业→食品和烟草→农村消费”表明，农业与食品行业之间流动的隐含甲烷排放不容忽视。供应链路径“煤炭开采→非金属矿物制品→建筑业→资本形成”从2000年的第17位升至2020年的第3位。因此，有必要控制主要受建筑业影响的上游部门的甲烷排放，还需要各部门协同努力以有效减排。到2020年，城市消费驱动的甲烷排放量是农村消费的3.1倍。本研究对中国过去二十年的供应链进行了全面分析。特别是，它建议通过控制与隐含甲烷排放相关的关键供应链路径和关键部门来进行政策干预，从而促进人为甲烷排放的协同减排。
