Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.
University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Apr;105:26-31. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.053. Epub 2021 Jan 30.
To characterize the dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, for modeling purposes.
Data from Colombian official case information were collated for a period of 5 months. Dynamical parameters of the disease spread were then estimated from the data. Probability distribution models were identified, representing the time from symptom onset to hospitalization, to intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to death. Kaplan-Meier estimates were also computed for the probability of eventually requiring hospitalization, needing ICU attention, and dying from the disease (the case fatality ratio).
Probability distributions of the times and probabilities were computed for the population and for groups based on age and sex. The results showed that for the times that characterize the course of the disease for a given patient (time to hospitalization, ICU admission, or death), the variation from one age group to another was very small (around 10% of the fixed effect intercept) and the effect of sex was even smaller (around 1%). The course of the disease appeared to be very similar for all patients. On the other hand, the probability that a patient would advance from one stage of the disease to another (to hospitalization, ICU admission, or death) was heavily influenced by sex and age. The relative risk of death for male individuals was 1.7 times that of female individuals (based on 22 924 deaths).
The times from one stage of the disease to another were almost independent of the major patient variables (sex, age). This was in stark contrast to the probabilities of progressing from one stage to another, which showed a strong dependence on age and sex. Data also showed that the length of hospital and ICU stays were almost independent of sex and age. The only factor that affected this length was the eventual outcome of the disease (survival or death); the time was significantly longer for surviving patients.
为建模目的，描述 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的动态。
收集了哥伦比亚官方病例信息，时间跨度为 5 个月。然后，从数据中估计疾病传播的动力学参数。确定了表示从症状发作到住院、进入重症监护病房（ICU）和死亡的时间的概率分布模型。还计算了最终需要住院、需要 ICU 关注和死于该病（病死率）的概率的 Kaplan-Meier 估计。
为人群和基于年龄和性别的组计算了时间和概率的概率分布。结果表明，对于给定患者疾病过程的时间（住院、进入 ICU 或死亡的时间），从一个年龄组到另一个年龄组的变化很小（约为固定效应截距的 10%），性别影响甚至更小（约 1%）。对于所有患者，疾病的过程似乎非常相似。另一方面，患者从疾病的一个阶段发展到另一个阶段（住院、进入 ICU 或死亡）的概率受到性别和年龄的强烈影响。男性个体的死亡相对风险是女性个体的 1.7 倍（基于 22 924 例死亡）。
从一个阶段到另一个阶段的时间几乎独立于主要的患者变量（性别、年龄）。这与从一个阶段进展到另一个阶段的概率形成鲜明对比，后者强烈依赖于年龄和性别。数据还表明，住院和 ICU 停留的时间几乎与性别和年龄无关。唯一影响这一时间的因素是疾病的最终结果（存活或死亡）；对于存活的患者，时间明显更长。
