Covid-19 对中国经济的影响：基于铁路运输统计数据的预测模型。
Covid-19's impact on China's economy: a prediction model based on railway transportation statistics.
机构信息
Key Laboratory for Applied Statistics of MOE, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia.
出版信息
Disasters. 2021 Dec;45 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S76-S96. doi: 10.1111/disa.12476. Epub 2021 Sep 3.
The outbreak of Covid-19 in China during the Spring Festival of 2020 has changed life as we knew it. To explore its impact on China's economy, we analyse the daily railway passenger volume data during the Spring Festival travel rush and establish two RegARMA models to predict GDP in the first quarter. The models forecast China might lose 4.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020 due to Covid-19, an expected decrease of 20.69 percent (year-on-year drop 15.60 percent). However, comparing our forecast GDP without Covid-19 (23.2 trillion yuan) with the real GDP (20.65 trillion yuan), there is a smaller drop of 2.55 trillion yuan, a gap of 12.35 percent. The reason for this overestimation is that some positive factors, including macro-control policies, are neglected in these models. With the global spread of Covid-19, China should adopt a policy of focusing on balancing both domestic and external affairs against the instability of the world economy.
2020 年春节期间中国新冠肺炎疫情的爆发改变了我们的生活。为了探究其对中国经济的影响，我们分析了春运期间的铁路日客运量数据，并建立了两个 RegARMA 模型来预测第一季度的 GDP。模型预测，由于新冠肺炎疫情，中国 2020 年第一季度可能损失 4.8 万亿元，同比下降 20.69%（与去年同期相比下降 15.60%）。然而，与我们预测的没有新冠肺炎疫情时的 GDP（23.2 万亿元）相比，实际 GDP（20.65 万亿元）下降幅度较小，减少了 2.55 万亿元，差距为 12.35%。造成这种高估的原因是这些模型忽略了一些积极因素，包括宏观调控政策。随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延，中国应采取内外兼顾、应对世界经济不稳定的政策。
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