School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 3;18(23):12768. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182312768.
In the current context of rising trade protectionism, deeply understanding the impacts of COVID-19 on economy and energy has important practical significance for China to cope with external shocks in an uncertain environment and enhance economic resilience. By constructing an integrated economic and energy input-output model including the COVID-19 shock, this paper assesses the impacts of COVID-19 on China's macro-economy and energy consumption in the context of trade protectionism. The results are shown as follows. First, in the context of protectionism, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China would cause a 2.2-3.09% drop in China's GDP and a 1.56-2.48% drop in energy consumption, while adverse spillovers from global spread of COVID-19 would reduce its GDP by 2.27-3.28% and energy consumption by 2.48-3.49%. Second, the negative impacts of domestic outbreak on China's construction, non-metallic mineral products, and services would be on average 1.29% higher than those on other industries, while the impacts of global spread of COVID-19 on export-oriented industries such as textiles and wearing apparel would be on average 1.23% higher than other industries. Third, the effects of two wave of the pandemic on China's fossil energy consumption would be on average 1.44% and 0.93% higher than non-fossil energy consumption, respectively.
在当前贸易保护主义抬头的背景下，深入研究 COVID-19 对经济和能源的影响，对于中国在不确定环境中应对外部冲击、增强经济韧性具有重要的现实意义。本文通过构建一个包含 COVID-19 冲击的综合经济和能源投入产出模型，评估了贸易保护主义背景下 COVID-19 对中国宏观经济和能源消费的影响。结果表明：第一，在保护主义背景下，中国 COVID-19 疫情爆发将导致中国 GDP 下降 2.2-3.09%，能源消费下降 1.56-2.48%，而 COVID-19 在全球范围内的蔓延则会使中国 GDP 下降 2.27-3.28%，能源消费下降 2.48-3.49%。第二，疫情在国内爆发对中国建筑、非金属矿物制品和服务业的负面影响平均比其他行业高出 1.29%，而 COVID-19 在全球范围内蔓延对纺织服装等出口导向型行业的影响则平均比其他行业高出 1.23%。第三，疫情两波对中国化石能源消费的影响平均比非化石能源消费高出 1.44%和 0.93%。
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