Ron E, Modan B, Boice J D
Dept. of Clinical Epidemiology, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Israel.
Am J Epidemiol. 1988 Apr;127(4):713-25. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114852.
The mortality experience of 10,834 children treated with x-rays for ringworm of the scalp between 1948 and 1960, 10,834 matched comparison subjects, and 5,392 siblings was evaluated over an average follow-up period of 26 years. Mortality was ascertained by linking unique personal identification numbers of study subjects with the national death registry. Radiotherapy in childhood was associated with an increased risk of death due to tumors of the head and neck (relative risk (RR) = 3) and leukemia (RR = 2.3). No other causes of death were significantly elevated after irradiation. The excess of brain tumors (average intracranial dose = 150 rads) confirms that the central nervous system of the child is sensitive to the induction of cancers by radiation. The bone marrow dose averaged over the entire body was approximately 30 rad, and the estimated risk coefficient of 0.9 excess leukemias per million per year per rad is consistent with other studies of whole-body exposure. A significant excess of bone and soft tissue sarcomas (RR = 9) was also observed. The pattern of cancer risk over time was bimodal; an early peak due to excess leukemias occurred within a few years of exposure, whereas excesses of solid tumors were most apparent after about 15 years. Despite the excess of cancers among exposed persons, over 50% of the deaths in the entire study population were from external events, mainly accidents or events related to military service. An estimate of the total impact of radiogenic cancer after childhood irradiation will require additional years of observation since the population irradiated is just now entering the age ranges normally associated with high cancer risk.
对1948年至1960年间接受X射线治疗头皮癣的10834名儿童、10834名匹配的对照对象以及5392名兄弟姐妹的死亡情况进行了评估,平均随访期为26年。通过将研究对象的唯一个人识别号码与国家死亡登记处进行关联来确定死亡率。儿童期放疗与头颈部肿瘤导致的死亡风险增加相关(相对风险(RR)=3)以及白血病(RR=2.3)。放疗后其他死因均未显著升高。脑肿瘤的增加(平均颅内剂量=150拉德)证实儿童的中枢神经系统对辐射诱发癌症敏感。全身平均骨髓剂量约为30拉德,估计每拉德每年每百万有0.9例白血病的风险系数与其他全身照射研究结果一致。还观察到骨和软组织肉瘤显著增加(RR=9)。癌症风险随时间的模式是双峰的;因白血病增加导致的早期峰值在接触后几年内出现,而实体瘤增加在大约15年后最为明显。尽管受照射人群中癌症有所增加,但整个研究人群中超过50%的死亡来自外部事件,主要是事故或与军事服役相关的事件。由于接受照射的人群刚刚进入通常与高癌症风险相关的年龄范围,因此对儿童期放疗后放射性癌症的总体影响进行估计还需要更多年的观察。