Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Biostatistics and Epidemiology Department, Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, France.
Addiction. 2018 Feb;113(2):247-256. doi: 10.1111/add.14009. Epub 2017 Sep 29.
Alcohol consumption increases the risk of cancer. Thus, to inform policy decisions, this study estimated the number of new cancer cases in France in 2015 attributable to alcohol consumption generally and to light (< 20 g per day (g/day) among women; < 40 g/day among men), moderate (20 to < 40 g/day among women; 40 to < 60 g/day among men) and heavy drinking (≥ 40 g/day among women; ≥ 60 g/day among men), and the number of cancer cases that would have been prevented assuming a previous 10% decrease in alcohol consumption.
New cancer cases attributable to alcohol were estimated using a population-attributable fraction methodology, assuming a 10-year latency period between exposure and diagnosis.
Population of France, 2015.
Alcohol consumption was estimated by coordinating data from the Baromètre santé 2005, a national representative survey (n = 30 455), with data from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Relative risks were obtained from meta-analyses. Cancer data were estimated based on data from the French Cancer Registries Network. Uncertainty intervals (UI) were estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure.
In France in 2015, an estimated 27 894 (95% UI = 24 287-30 996) or 7.9% of all new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol. The number of alcohol-attributable new cancer cases was similar for both men and women, with oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas having the largest attributable fraction (57.7%). Light, moderate, heavy and former alcohol drinking were responsible for 1.5, 1.3, 4.4 and 0.6% of all new cancer cases, respectively. Lastly, if there had been a previous 10% reduction in alcohol consumption, 2178 (95% UI = 1687-2601) new cancer cases would have been prevented.
Alcohol consumption in France appears to cause almost 8% of new cancer cases, with light and moderate drinking contributing appreciably to this burden. A 10% drop in drinking in France would have prevented more than 2000 (estimated) new cancer cases in 2015.
饮酒会增加癌症风险。因此，为了为政策决策提供信息，本研究估计了 2015 年法国因饮酒导致的新发癌症病例数，包括一般饮酒、轻量（女性<20 克/天；男性<40 克/天）、中度（女性 20-<40 克/天；男性 40-<60 克/天）和大量饮酒（女性≥40 克/天；男性≥60 克/天），以及假设饮酒量减少 10%，本可以预防的癌症病例数。
采用人群归因分数方法估计与酒精相关的新发癌症病例数，假设暴露与诊断之间存在 10 年潜伏期。
2015 年法国人口。
通过协调 Baromètre santé 2005 的数据（全国代表性调查，n=30455）与全球酒精与健康信息系统的数据，对酒精摄入量进行了估计。相对风险来自荟萃分析。根据法国癌症登记网络的数据，估计癌症数据。使用蒙特卡罗程序估计不确定区间（UI）。
2015 年，法国估计有 27894 例（95%UI=24287-30996）或 7.9%的新发癌症病例归因于酒精。男性和女性的酒精相关新发癌症病例数相似，其中食管鳞状细胞癌的归因分数最大（57.7%）。轻、中、重和前酒精饮酒分别占所有新发癌症病例的 1.5%、1.3%、4.4%和 0.6%。最后，如果之前酒精摄入量减少 10%，则可预防 2178 例（95%UI=1687-2601）新发癌症病例。
法国的饮酒情况似乎导致近 8%的新发癌症病例，轻、中度饮酒对这一负担的贡献相当大。法国饮酒量下降 10%，2015 年可预防 2000 多例（估计）新发癌症病例。
