Kariuki Rebecca W, Munishi Linus K, Courtney-Mustaphi Colin J, Capitani Claudia, Shoemaker Anna, Lane Paul J, Marchant Rob
School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, Nelson Mandela-African Institution of Science and Technology, Tengeru, Arusha, Tanzania.
Department of Environment and Geography, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, Heslington, York, North Yorkshire, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2021 Feb 12;16(2):e0245516. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245516. eCollection 2021.
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
东非地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）速度迅猛，且科学家、社区和决策者之间真正平等的伙伴关系实例有限，这对制定通往未来环境和社会经济可持续发展的稳健路径构成了挑战。我们使用一种参与式建模工具Kesho，来评估影响坦桑尼亚北部过去（1959 - 1999年）和现在（2000 - 2018年）土地利用和土地覆盖变化的生物物理、社会经济、文化和治理因素，并模拟到2030年的四种土地覆盖变化情景。情景模拟使用空间建模，将利益相关者对未来环境变化的认知与土地利用和土地覆盖变化近期趋势的社会及环境数据相结合。从利益相关者的角度来看，1959年至2018年间，土地利用和土地覆盖变化受到气候变率、自然资源可获取性、农业扩张、城市化、旅游业增长以及土地获取和自然资源管理相关立法的影响。在其他社会 - 环境 - 政治土地利用和土地覆盖变化驱动因素中，利益相关者设想，从2018年到2030年，土地利用和土地覆盖变化将在很大程度上受到土地健康状况、自然和经济资本以及实施土地利用计划和政策的政治意愿的影响。预计情景表明，到2030年，在不同情景下农业用地将扩大8% - 20%，草本植被和林地覆盖面积将分别减少2.5% - 5%和10% - 19%。利益相关者的讨论进一步确定了2030年理想的未来情景为基础设施得到改善、退化景观得到恢复、野生动物得到有效保护以及拥有更好的耕作技术的情景。2030年不理想的未来情景则是那些以土地退化、贫困和文化丧失为特征的情景。我们工作的见解确定了未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化情景对野生动物和文化保护以及到2030年实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）及具体目标的影响。Kesho方法利用了不同利益相关者之间的知识交流，在此过程中促进了社会学习，赋予了所产生成果的主人翁意识，使科学理解民主化，并提高了成果的质量和相关性。
