Federal Institute of Science and Technology of Pará - IFPA Campus Castanhal, Castanhal, Brazil.
Research Group for Biosystems Management, Modeling and Experimentation - GEMAbio, IFPA, Castanhal, Brazil.
Epidemiol Infect. 2021 Feb 16;149:e72. doi: 10.1017/S095026882100039X.
Due to the high incidence of COVID-19 case numbers internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of global relevance, advising countries to follow protocols to combat pandemic advance through actions that can reduce spread and consequently avoid a collapse in the local health system. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of the evolution of new community cases, and mortality records of COVID-19 in the State of Pará, which has a subtropical climate with temperatures between 20 and 35 °C, after the implementation of social distancing by quarantine and adoption of lockdown. The follow-up was carried out by the daily data from the technical bulletins provided by the State of Pará Public Health Secretary (SESPA). On 18 March 2020, Pará notified the first case of COVID-19. After 7 weeks, the number of confirmed cases reached 4756 with 375 deaths. The results show it took 49 days for 81% of the 144 states municipalities, distributed over an area of approximately 1 248 000 km2 to register COVID-19 cases. Temperature variations between 24.5 and 33.1 °C did not promote the decline in the new infections curve. The association between social isolation, quarantine and lockdown as an action to contain the infection was effective in reducing the region's new cases registration of COVID-19 in the short-term. However, short periods of lockdown may have promoted the virus spread among peripheral municipalities of the capital, as well as to inland regions.
由于国际上 COVID-19 病例数量居高不下，世界卫生组织（WHO）宣布全球公共卫生紧急事件，建议各国遵循协议，通过采取可以减少传播的行动来对抗大流行的推进，从而避免当地卫生系统崩溃。本研究旨在评估巴伊亚州新社区病例和 COVID-19 死亡率记录的演变动态，该州属亚热带气候，温度在 20 至 35°C 之间，在实施检疫隔离和封锁措施以保持社交距离后。通过巴伊亚州公共卫生秘书处（SESPA）提供的技术公报的每日数据进行了跟踪。2020 年 3 月 18 日，巴伊亚州通报了首例 COVID-19 病例。7 周后，确诊病例数达到 4756 例，死亡 375 例。结果表明，在面积约为 124.8 万平方公里的 144 个州和市中，有 81%的州和市用了 49 天时间报告 COVID-19 病例。24.5 至 33.1°C 之间的温度变化并未促进新感染曲线的下降。将社会隔离、检疫和封锁作为遏制感染的措施结合起来，在短期内有效减少了该地区 COVID-19 新病例的登记。然而，短期封锁可能会促进病毒在首都周边城市以及内陆地区的传播。
