Soil and Plant Science Division, United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington, D.C., United States of America.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Feb 19;16(2):e0247263. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247263. eCollection 2021.
Coccidioidomycosis, also known as Valley fever, is a disease that can result in substantial illness and death. It is most common in the southwestern United States and areas of Latin America with arid climates, though reports increasingly suggest its range is wider than previously recognized. The natural habitat of the causative organisms, Coccidioides spp., have been associated with certain soil properties and climatic conditions. Current understanding of its geographic range is primarily defined by skin test studies and outbreak locations. We developed a fuzzy system model to predict suitable soil habitats for Coccidioides across the western United States based on parameters (electrical conductivity, organic matter content, pH, water holding capacity, temperature, and precipitation) from sites where soil sampling has confirmed the presence of Coccidioides. The model identified high coccidioidomycosis incidence areas as having high suitability and identified pockets of elevated suitability corresponding with outbreak locations outside the traditional range. By providing high-resolution estimates of Coccidioides suitability, including areas without public health surveillance for coccidioidomycosis, this model may be able to aid public health and clinical provider decision making. Awareness of possible Coccidioides soil habitats could help mitigate risk during soil-disturbing activities and help providers improve coccidioidomycosis diagnosis and treatment.
球孢子菌病，又称“山谷热”，是一种可能导致严重疾病和死亡的疾病。它在美国西南部和拉丁美洲的一些干旱气候地区最为常见，但越来越多的报告表明，其分布范围比以前认为的要广。致病生物体球孢子菌的自然栖息地与某些土壤特性和气候条件有关。目前对其地理范围的了解主要是通过皮肤试验研究和疫情发生地点来定义的。我们开发了一个模糊系统模型，根据已证实存在球孢子菌的地点的参数（电导率、有机质含量、pH 值、持水能力、温度和降水），来预测美国西部适合球孢子菌生长的土壤栖息地。该模型确定了高球孢子菌病发病率地区具有高适宜性，并确定了与传统范围外疫情发生地点相对应的适宜性升高的区域。通过提供包括没有球孢子菌病公共卫生监测的地区在内的球孢子菌适宜性的高分辨率估计，该模型可能有助于公共卫生和临床提供者的决策制定。了解可能存在球孢子菌的土壤栖息地，可以帮助在土壤扰动活动期间降低风险，并帮助提供者改善球孢子菌病的诊断和治疗。
