Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, U.S. Military Academy, 745 Brewerton Road, West Point, NY 10996.
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2020 Feb;32:100317. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2019.100317. Epub 2019 Nov 19.
Coccidioidomycosis is an understudied infectious disease acquired by inhaling fungal spores of Coccidioides species. While historically connected to the southwestern United States, the endemic region for this disease is not well defined. This study's objective was to estimate the impact of climate, soil, elevation and land cover on the Coccidioides species' ecological niche. This research used maximum entropy ecological niche modeling based on disease case data from 2015 to 2016. Results found mean temperature of the driest quarter, and barren, shrub, and cultivated land covers influential in characterizing the niche. In addition to hotspots in central California and Arizona, the Columbia Plateau ecoregion of Washington and Oregon showed more favorable conditions for fungus presence than surrounding areas. The identification of influential spatial drivers will assist in future modeling efforts, and the potential distribution map generated may aid public health officials in watching for potential hotspots, assessing vulnerability, and refining endemicity.
球孢子菌病是一种由吸入粗球孢子菌属真菌孢子引起的研究不足的传染病。虽然该病历史上与美国西南部有关，但该病的流行地区尚未明确界定。本研究的目的是估计气候、土壤、海拔和土地覆盖对粗球孢子菌属物种生态位的影响。本研究使用最大熵生态位模型，基于 2015 年至 2016 年的疾病病例数据。结果发现，最干燥季度的平均温度以及贫瘠、灌木和耕地覆盖对特征化生态位有影响。除了加利福尼亚州中部和亚利桑那州的热点地区外，华盛顿州和俄勒冈州的哥伦比亚高原生态区的真菌存在条件比周围地区更为有利。确定有影响力的空间驱动因素将有助于未来的建模工作，生成的潜在分布地图可能有助于公共卫生官员监测潜在热点、评估脆弱性和完善地方性。
