Hussain Takasar, Ozair Muhammad, Ali Farhad, Rehman Sajid Ur, Assiri Taghreed A, Mahmoud Emad E
Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat, Pakistan.
Results Phys. 2021 Mar;22:103956. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103956. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen if precautionary restrictions are adopted.
在疫情初期观察预防措施的效果以及疫情爆发的规模（包括疫情预测）是非常令人好奇的。为应对新冠疫情，设计了一个模型。该模型的分析研究包括基本再生数的计算以及无病和患病平衡的恒定水平。该模型还探索病例数量，预测结果与登记的病例相符。通过参数校准，还对巴基斯坦的新增病例进行了预测。还通过分析和模拟计算了新冠病例当前水平和永久水平的患者数量。还讨论了如果采取预防限制措施可能出现的未来情况。
