Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan.
Higher Education Department, Punjab, Pakistan.
Biomed Res Int. 2020 Dec 3;2020:5607236. doi: 10.1155/2020/5607236. eCollection 2020.
During the outbreak of an epidemic, it is of immense interest to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast of outbreak including epidemic peak. To confront the epidemic, a simple model is used to simulate the number of affected patients of coronavirus disease in Romania and Pakistan. The model captures the growth in case onsets, and the estimated results are almost compatible with the actual reported cases. Through the calibration of parameters, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Romania and Pakistan is reported till the end of this year by analysing the current situation. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach this level is also reported through the simulations. The drastic condition is also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed.
在疫情爆发期间，监测防控措施的效果和疫情的预测（包括疫情高峰）具有重要意义。为了应对疫情，我们使用一个简单的模型来模拟罗马尼亚和巴基斯坦冠状病毒疾病受感染患者的数量。该模型捕捉到了病例的增长，估计结果与实际报告的病例几乎相符。通过参数校准，我们根据当前的疫情情况，对罗马尼亚和巴基斯坦今年年底前的新发病例进行了预测。我们还通过模拟报告了患者数量达到稳定水平的时间和达到该水平所需的时间。我们还讨论了如果所有的预防措施都被取消可能会出现的严重情况。
