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一种基于主体的新冠疫情与经济活动之间相互关系的模型。

An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities.

作者信息

Kano Takeshi, Yasui Kotaro, Mikami Taishi, Asally Munehiro, Ishiguro Akio

机构信息

Research Institute of Electrical Communication, Tohoku University, 2-1-1 Katahira, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan.

Frontier Research Institute for Interdisciplinary Sciences, Tohoku University, Aramaki aza Aoba 6-3, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan.

出版信息

Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2021 Jan;477(2245):20200604. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0604. Epub 2021 Jan 6.

Abstract

As of July 2020, COVID-19 caused by SARS-COV-2 is spreading worldwide, causing severe economic damage. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing outbreaks, it causes severe economic losses. Strategies to solve this dilemma by considering the interrelation between the spread of the virus and economic activities are urgently needed to mitigate the health and economic damage. Here, we propose an abstract agent-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak that accounts for economic activities. The computational simulation of the model recapitulates the trade-off between the health and economic damage associated with voluntary restraint measures. Based on the simulation results, we discuss how the macroscopic dynamics of infection and economics emerge from individuals' behaviours. We believe our model can serve as a platform for discussing solutions to the above-mentioned dilemma.

摘要

截至2020年7月,由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的2019冠状病毒病正在全球范围内传播,造成了严重的经济损失。虽然尽量减少人际接触在控制疫情方面有效,但会导致严重的经济损失。迫切需要通过考虑病毒传播与经济活动之间的相互关系来解决这一困境的策略,以减轻对健康和经济的损害。在此,我们提出了一个考虑经济活动的基于抽象主体的2019冠状病毒病疫情模型。该模型的计算模拟概括了与自愿限制措施相关的健康和经济损害之间的权衡。基于模拟结果,我们讨论了感染和经济的宏观动态如何从个体行为中产生。我们相信我们的模型可以作为一个讨论上述困境解决方案的平台。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be1f/7897648/ee32a579bb29/rspa20200604-g3.jpg

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