Liu Xiuling, Xie Fuji, Wang Haihua, Xue Chujiang
Business Economics Department, Shanghai Business School, Shanghai, 200235 China.
Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200030 China.
Clean Technol Environ Policy. 2021;23(5):1457-1474. doi: 10.1007/s10098-021-02040-z. Epub 2021 Feb 22.
The Chinese government has instituted a number of policies to actively promote the diffusion of new energy vehicles (NEVs). There is widespread consensus that policy mixes can drive NEV diffusion effectively. To verify this consensus, we construct a two-dimensional framework of NEV policy instruments: producer-orientation versus consumer-orientation instruments, economic in cash versus regulatory instruments and classify NEV policy mixes. Then, we analyse the impact of policy mixes on NEV diffusion among enterprises and consumers by building an evolutionary game model. And according to the concept of stable area in the evolutionary game, we propose a definition of policy effect. The results show: (1) Policy mixes can reduce the saddle point of the auto market game and accelerate the spread of NEVs. In the early stages of the NEV industry, the government should take the policy mix strategy with four policies, and economic in cash instrument should be the main policy. (2) Policy mixes composed of producer-orientation and consumer-orientation instruments have a synergy or complementarity to promote NEV diffusion effectively. (3) With the increasing rate of NEV production and consumption, the government should adopt policy mixes mainly composed of regulatory instruments and rather than economic instruments.
中国政府已制定多项政策，积极推动新能源汽车（NEV）的普及。人们普遍认为，政策组合能够有效推动新能源汽车的普及。为验证这一共识，我们构建了一个新能源汽车政策工具的二维框架：生产者导向型与消费者导向型工具、现金经济型与监管型工具，并对新能源汽车政策组合进行分类。然后，我们通过建立一个演化博弈模型，分析政策组合对企业和消费者中新能源汽车普及的影响。并根据演化博弈中稳定区域的概念，提出政策效果的定义。结果表明：（1）政策组合可以降低汽车市场博弈的鞍点，加速新能源汽车的推广。在新能源汽车产业的早期阶段，政府应采取包含四项政策的政策组合策略，且现金经济型工具应作为主要政策。（2）由生产者导向型和消费者导向型工具组成的政策组合具有协同作用或互补性，能够有效促进新能源汽车的普及。（3）随着新能源汽车生产和消费增长率的提高，政府应采用主要由监管型工具而非经济型工具组成的政策组合。
