Tang Jinhuan, Si Xinying, Wu Qiong, Li Xiangchen
School of Economics and Management, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 6;19(12):e0314899. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314899. eCollection 2024.
"Prevent minor issues before they become major problems, and prepare for the future." This study utilizes complex system theory to introduce a nonlinear dynamic system for examining the production and emission reduction strategies of new energy vehicle (NEV) and gasoline vehicle (GV) manufacturers under the dual credit (DC) policy over a long-term game process. By considering production delays, we analyze dynamic behaviors within a duopoly automotive system, including stable regions, bifurcation, chaotic attractors, and the Largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The results show that: (1) As production and carbon emission adjustment parameters increase, the decision-making system for both automakers can slip into disorder, posing a risk of disruption within the automotive industry. (2) In stable regions, GVs' carbon emission adjustments do not affect the production of either NEVs or GVs, while NEVs demonstrate greater flexibility in production adjustments compared to GVs. (3) The industry system will likely benefit from delay production decisions that could help stabilize the automobile market. The study provides theoretical support for the smooth transformation of old and new driving forces in the automobile industry.
“防微杜渐，未雨绸缪。”本研究运用复杂系统理论引入一个非线性动态系统，以考察在长期博弈过程中，新能源汽车（NEV）和汽油车（GV）制造商在双积分（DC）政策下的生产及减排策略。通过考虑生产延迟，我们分析了双寡头汽车系统内的动态行为，包括稳定区域、分岔、混沌吸引子以及最大Lyapunov指数（LLE）。结果表明：（1）随着生产和碳排放调整参数的增加，两家汽车制造商的决策系统可能陷入混乱，给汽车行业带来中断风险。（2）在稳定区域，汽油车的碳排放调整不会影响新能源汽车或汽油车的生产，而新能源汽车在生产调整方面比汽油车表现出更大的灵活性。（3）行业系统可能会从延迟生产决策中受益，这有助于稳定汽车市场。该研究为汽车产业新旧动力的平稳转换提供了理论支持。
