Sangkharat Kamolrat, Thornes John E, Wachiradilok Porntip, Pope Francis D
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UK.
Public Health England, CRCE, Chilton, Oxford, UK.
Heliyon. 2021 Feb 12;7(2):e06061. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06061. eCollection 2021 Feb.
The World Health Organization has highlighted that the number of deaths worldwide due to road accidents increases every year. It recommends that countries improve road safety for all people by providing sustainable and safe transport systems by 2030, efforts are especially required within Low Middle-Income Countries (LMICS). This study is the first to investigate the impact of rainfall on road accidents in Thailand. Thai emergency data were collected from the National Institute for Emergency Medicine (NIEM) between 2012 to 2018. A time-series design with generalized linear model (GLM) was applied to analyse the associations between road accidents and rainfall. The results are reported using relative risk (RR) at 95% confidence intervals compared with dry days. The effects of long-term trends, seasonality, day of the weeks, public holidays and other meteorological factors were controlled in the GLM. A meta-analysis was applied to summarise the estimate effect of rain groups stratified by the Northern and Southern provinces. Findings reported a significant increase in road accidents due to high rainfall levels both in the Southern and the Northern provinces. The pooled estimate risks in the Southern provinces have higher estimated risks than the Northern provinces. Both Northern and Southern provinces showed the rain group with 10-20 mm/day having the highest pooled estimated risk with RR = 1.052, (95% CI: 1.026-1.079) and RR = 1.062, (95% CI: 1.043-1.082), respectively, while surprisingly, heavy rain with more than 20 mm/day reported a reduction of risks. Road accidents can therefore be associated with rainfall. It is recommended that rainfall is factored into ambulance forecast models and warning systems, allowing for improvements in ambulance service efficiency. Policymakers need to integrate road safety policies that reduce road accidents in wet weather.
世界卫生组织强调，全球每年因道路交通事故死亡的人数呈上升趋势。该组织建议各国到2030年通过提供可持续且安全的交通系统来改善所有人的道路安全状况，低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）尤其需要做出努力。本研究首次调查了降雨对泰国道路交通事故的影响。泰国的紧急事故数据于2012年至2018年间从国家急诊医学研究所（NIEM）收集。采用广义线性模型（GLM）的时间序列设计来分析道路交通事故与降雨之间的关联。结果以与干燥日相比的95%置信区间的相对风险（RR）报告。GLM中控制了长期趋势、季节性、星期几、公共假日和其他气象因素的影响。应用荟萃分析来总结按北部和南部省份分层的降雨组的估计效应。研究结果显示，北部和南部省份因降雨量高导致的道路交通事故显著增加。南部省份的合并估计风险高于北部省份。北部和南部省份的降雨组均显示，日降雨量为10 - 20毫米时合并估计风险最高，RR分别为1.052（95%置信区间：1.026 - 1.079）和1.062（95%置信区间：1.043 - 1.082），而令人惊讶的是，日降雨量超过20毫米的暴雨报告风险降低。因此，道路交通事故可能与降雨有关。建议将降雨因素纳入救护车预测模型和预警系统，以提高救护车服务效率。政策制定者需要整合道路安全政策，以减少潮湿天气下的道路交通事故。
