Xue Yuyi, Ruan Xiaoe, Xiao Yanni
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, P.R. China.
Adv Differ Equ. 2021;2021(1):138. doi: 10.1186/s13662-021-03306-y. Epub 2021 Feb 27.
To investigate the influences of heterogeneity and waning immunity on measles transmission, we formulate a network model with periodic transmission rate, and theoretically examine the threshold dynamics. We numerically find that the waning of immunity can lead to an increase in the basic reproduction number and the density of infected individuals. Moreover, there exists a critical level for average degree above which increases quicker in the scale-free network than in the random network. To design the effective control strategies for the subpopulations with different activities, we examine the optimal control problem of the heterogeneous model. Numerical studies suggest us no matter what the network is, we should implement control measures as soon as possible once the outbreak takes off, and particularly, the subpopulation with high connectivity should require high intensity of interventions. However, with delayed initiation of controls, relatively strong control measures should be given to groups with medium degrees. Furthermore, the allocation of costs (or resources) should coincide with their contact patterns.
为了研究异质性和免疫衰退对麻疹传播的影响,我们构建了一个具有周期性传播率的网络模型,并从理论上研究了阈值动态。我们通过数值计算发现,免疫衰退会导致基本再生数和感染个体密度增加。此外,平均度存在一个临界水平,高于此水平时,无标度网络中的基本再生数比随机网络中增加得更快。为了针对不同活动水平的亚群体设计有效的控制策略,我们研究了异质模型的最优控制问题。数值研究表明,无论网络类型如何,一旦疫情爆发,我们都应尽快实施控制措施,特别是对于具有高连通性的亚群体,应采取高强度的干预措施。然而,如果控制措施启动延迟,则应给予中等度数群体相对较强的控制措施。此外,成本(或资源)的分配应与其接触模式相匹配。