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一种概率模型,用于根据基于距离和时间的综合标准评估大学建筑中应对新冠病毒传播的主要解决方案的有效性。

A probabilistic model to evaluate the effectiveness of main solutions to COVID-19 spreading in university buildings according to proximity and time-based consolidated criteria.

作者信息

D'Orazio Marco, Bernardini Gabriele, Quagliarini Enrico

机构信息

Department of Construction, Civil Engineering and Architecture, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Brecce Bianche, 60131 Ancona, Italy.

出版信息

Build Simul. 2021;14(6):1795-1809. doi: 10.1007/s12273-021-0770-2. Epub 2021 Feb 27.

DOI:10.1007/s12273-021-0770-2
PMID:33680337
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7910197/
Abstract

UNLABELLED

University buildings are one of the most relevant closed environments in which the COVID-19 event clearly pointed out stakeholders' needs toward safety issues, especially because of the possibility of day-to-day presences of the same users (i.e. students, teachers) and overcrowding causing long-lasting contacts with possible "infectors". While waiting for the vaccine, as for other public buildings, policy-makers' measures to limit virus outbreaks combine individual's strategies (facial masks), occupants' capacity and access control. But, up to now, no easy-to-apply tools are available for assessing the punctual effectiveness of such measures. To fill this gap, this work proposes a quick and probabilistic simulation model based on consolidated proximity and exposure-time-based rules for virus transmission confirmed by international health organizations. The building occupancy is defined according to university scheduling, identifying the main "attraction areas" in the building (classrooms, break-areas). Scenarios are defined in terms of occupants' densities and the above-mentioned mitigation strategies. The model is calibrated on experimental data and applied to a relevant university building. Results demonstrate the model capabilities. In particular, it underlines that if such strategies are not combined, the virus spreading can be limited by only using high protection respiratory devices (i.e. FFP3) by almost every occupant. On the contrary, the combination between access control and building capacity limitation can lead to the adoption of lighter protective devices (i.e. surgical masks), thus improving the feasibility, users' comfort and favorable reception. Simplified rules to combine acceptable mask filters-occupants' density are thus provided to help stakeholders in organizing users' presences in the building during the pandemic.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL ESM

supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s12273-021-0770-2.

摘要

未标注

大学建筑是最相关的封闭环境之一,在新冠疫情期间,利益相关者对安全问题的需求在这类环境中得到了明确体现,尤其是因为同一批使用者(即学生、教师)可能每天都会出现,且人员拥挤会导致与潜在“感染者”产生长时间接触。在等待疫苗问世期间,与其他公共建筑一样,政策制定者为限制病毒爆发所采取的措施包括个人防护策略(佩戴口罩)、控制建筑内人员数量以及出入管控。但是,到目前为止,尚无易于应用的工具可用于评估这些措施的即时有效性。为填补这一空白,本文提出了一种快速概率模拟模型,该模型基于国际卫生组织确认的、成熟的病毒传播接近度和暴露时间规则。根据大学的课程安排确定建筑内的人员数量,识别建筑内的主要“吸引区域”(教室、休息区)。根据人员密度和上述缓解策略定义不同场景。该模型依据实验数据进行校准,并应用于一座相关的大学建筑。结果展示了该模型的能力。特别是,它强调如果不将这些策略结合起来,几乎每个使用者仅通过使用高防护等级的呼吸设备(如FFP3口罩)才能限制病毒传播。相反,出入管控与限制建筑内人员数量相结合,可以采用防护等级较低的设备(如医用口罩),从而提高可行性、使用者舒适度并获得更好的接受度。因此,本文提供了简化规则,用于结合可接受的口罩过滤等级和人员密度,以帮助利益相关者在疫情期间安排建筑内人员的活动。

电子补充材料ESM:补充材料可在本文的在线版本中获取,链接为10.1007/s12273-021-0770-2。

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