Du Pei, Wang Jian-Zhou
School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Mar 8;42(3):1255-1267. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202005225.
The assessment of residents' health and economic benefits of PM pollution control is of great significance for the promotion of regional environmental air pollution monitoring, warning, and prevention. This paper utilized Poisson regression relative risk models and environmental value assessment methods to assess the health risks and economic benefits of PM pollution control in the 16 municipal districts of Beijing from 2016 to 2019 after reaching the secondary standard limit of 35 μg·m. The results showed that PM concentrations, various health effects, economic benefits, and per capita economic health benefits in all 16 districts showed a downward trend. Specifically, PM concentrations dropped from 73 μg·m in 2016 to 42 μg·m in 2019 at an average annual rate of 16.75%. The total number of healthy beneficiaries from PM pollution control dropped from 439985 cases in 2016 (95% confidence interval (CI):183987, 653476) to 77288 cases in 2019 (95% confidence interval (CI):30483, 120905) at an average annual rate of approximately 42.67%. The share of health economic benefits in GDP dropped from 3.16% (95% confidence interval (CI):1.10%, 4.73%) to 0.55% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.18%, 0.88%), and the per capita health economic benefit dropped from 3727.61 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):1303.24, 5592.18) to 906.58 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):295.14, 1438.27). Due to differences in PM concentrations, population number and density, and economic values of unit health endpoints, the results of the health economic benefit analysis, proportion of GDP, and per capita benefits varied between the 16 districts. Among these, Fengtai, Tongzhou, and Daxing show much higher values than others, indicating relatively high health and economic benefits from pollution control.
评估居民健康状况以及PM污染控制的经济效益,对于推动区域环境空气污染监测、预警和预防具有重要意义。本文运用泊松回归相对风险模型和环境价值评估方法,对2016年至2019年北京市16个市辖区在PM达到35μg·m二级标准限值后的PM污染控制的健康风险和经济效益进行评估。结果显示,所有16个区的PM浓度、各种健康影响、经济效益以及人均经济健康效益均呈下降趋势。具体而言,PM浓度从2016年的73μg·m降至2019年的42μg·m,年均下降率为16.75%。PM污染控制带来的健康受益总人数从2016年的439985例(95%置信区间(CI):183987,653476)降至2019年的77288例(95%置信区间(CI):30483,120905),年均下降率约为42.67%。健康经济效益在GDP中的占比从3.16%(95%置信区间(CI):1.10%,4.73%)降至0.55%(95%置信区间(CI):0.18%,0.88%),人均健康经济效益从3727.61元(95%置信区间(CI):1303.24,5592.18)降至906.58元(95%置信区间(CI):295.14,1438.27)。由于PM浓度、人口数量和密度以及单位健康终点的经济价值存在差异,16个区的健康经济效益分析结果、GDP占比以及人均效益各不相同。其中,丰台、通州和大兴的数值远高于其他区,表明污染控制带来了相对较高的健康和经济效益。