Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan.
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 7;12(1):2094. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6.
The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980-2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere-ocean response in the Indian Ocean-western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.
亚洲夏季季风的年际变化对亚洲社会有重大影响。气候建模的进步使我们能够对大约半年前的季节性亚洲夏季季风做出有用的预测，但长期预测仍然具有挑战性。在这里，我们使用了一个跨越 1980-2016 年的 52 成员大型集合回溯实验，表明一个最先进的气候模型可以提前一年以上预测亚洲夏季季风及其相关的夏季热带气旋活动。这种长期预测的关键是成功模拟厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的演变，并在预测的第二年北夏季真实地代表印度洋-西北太平洋的后续大气-海洋响应。一个较大的集合大小对于实现有用的预测技能也很重要，甚至更大的集合可以进一步提高预测技能。
