School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Department of Geography and Environmental Science, The University of Reading, Whiteknights, P.O. Box 227, Reading RG6 6AB, UK.
State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning & IDG/McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Environ Res. 2021 Jun;197:111106. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111106. Epub 2021 Apr 15.
This study investigated the impact of humidity and temperature on the spread of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) by statistically comparing modelled pandemic dynamics (daily infection and recovery cases) with daily temperature and humidity of three climate zones (Mainland China, South America and Africa) from January to August 2020. We modelled the pandemic growth using a simple logistic function to derive information of the viral infection and describe the growth of infected and recovered cases. The results indicate that the infected and recovered cases of the first wave were controlled in China and managed in both South America and Africa. There is a negative correlation between both humidity (r = - 0.21; p = 0.27) and temperature (r = -0.22; p = 0.24) with spread of the virus. Though this study did not fully encompass socio-cultural factors, we recognise that local government responses, general health policies, population density and transportation could also affect the spread of the virus. The pandemic can be managed better in the second wave if stricter safety protocols are implemented. We urge various units to collaborate strongly and call on countries to adhere to stronger safety protocols in the second wave.
本研究通过将建模的大流行动态(每日感染和恢复病例)与 2020 年 1 月至 8 月三个气候带(中国大陆、南美洲和非洲)的每日温度和湿度进行统计学比较,研究了湿度和温度对 COVID-19(SARS-CoV-2)传播的影响。我们使用简单的逻辑函数对大流行的增长进行建模,以获取有关病毒感染的信息,并描述感染和恢复病例的增长。结果表明,中国控制了第一波感染和恢复病例,并在南美洲和非洲进行了管理。湿度(r=-0.21;p=0.27)和温度(r=-0.22;p=0.24)与病毒传播呈负相关。尽管本研究并未完全涵盖社会文化因素,但我们认识到,地方政府的应对措施、一般卫生政策、人口密度和交通等因素也可能影响病毒的传播。如果实施更严格的安全协议,第二波疫情可以得到更好的控制。我们敦促各单位加强合作,并呼吁各国在第二波疫情中遵守更严格的安全协议。