INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France.
Orange Labs, Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services (SENSE), Chatillon, France.
Euro Surveill. 2021 Apr;26(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272.
Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
继 SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 变异株传播之后，法国于 2021 年 1 月加强了社交距离措施。我们使用基于基因组监测校准的两株数学模型，估计宵禁措施通过减少历史株的传播，同时 B.1.1.7 继续增长，使住院人数达到稳定。学校假期似乎在 2 月进一步减缓了进展。如果不逐步加强社交距离措施，尽管预计疫苗接种节奏会加快，但预计住院人数仍将迅速增加。
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